Aberdeen
vs
Dundee
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Aberdeen 1–2 Dundee
The model makes it 35% Aberdeen, 28% draw, 37% Dundee — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Aberdeen 1.37, Dundee 1.42.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Aberdeen and Dundee are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Aberdeen's rating is built from 50 Scottish Premiership matches and Dundee's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 543 matches.
Key facts
- Aberdeen are 11th on 11 points from 12 games; Dundee are 5th on 17 points from 12 games — Premiership.
- Aberdeen are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Hibernian.
- Dundee have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to St Johnstone.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Aberdeen 3–0 Dundee.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aberdeen vs Dundee
Has the model earned this number?
Dundee at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aberdeen vs Dundee
Aberdeen
Premiership
- L0-4Hibernian7 November 2026
- L0-1Falkirk28 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dundee United24 October 2026
- W3-1St Mirren17 October 2026
- L0-1St Johnstone11 October 2026
Dundee
Premiership
- L1-2away to St Johnstone7 November 2026
- W3-1Kilmarnock28 October 2026
- L1-2away to St Mirren24 October 2026
- D2-2Rangers17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk10 October 2026
What these results say
- Aberdeen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aberdeen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundee scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundee conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dundee had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aberdeen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 5 | Dundee | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aberdeen
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 60% today
Dundee
Chance to finish in the top six · 54% today
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs Dundee
- 15 August 2026Aberdeen 3–0 DundeeLeague Cup
- 8 August 2026Dundee 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 17 May 2026Dundee 3–2 AberdeenPremiership
- 21 February 2026Aberdeen 2–3 DundeePremiership
- 6 December 2025Dundee 1–3 AberdeenPremiership
- 5 October 2025Aberdeen 4–0 DundeePremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and Dundee
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet43
Dundee
GoalsAssists
- B. Fink40
- J. Westley40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dundee the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Aberdeen against 1.42 for Dundee. Aberdeen's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.59 for Dundee.
How the model reaches 37% for Dundee to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Dundee to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Aberdeen's ratings add 3 points and Dundee's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage30%−7
- Aberdeen's ratings33%+3
- Dundee's ratings37%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Aberdeen at home · Dundee away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
AberdeenDundee
Aberdeen are 11th after 12 Premiership matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Dundee are 5th after 12 (between 2nd and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Aberdeen 12, Dundee 12.
Aberdeen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Dundee have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Aberdeen
- at Heart of Midlothian2 Dec · Premiershipwin 18%
- vs Dundee United5 Dec · Premiershipwin 36%
- at Falkirk12 Dec · Premiershipwin 19%
Dundee
- vs Celtic2 Dec · Premiershipwin 24%
- vs Falkirk5 Dec · Premiershipwin 38%
- at Kilmarnock12 Dec · Premiershipwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.