Bravo
vs
Aluminij
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Bravo 1–0 Aluminij
The model makes it 46% Bravo, 28% draw, 26% Aluminij — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bravo 1.52, Aluminij 1.03.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Bravo's rating is built from 49 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Aluminij's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bravo are 5th on 23 points from 15 games; Aluminij are 7th on 17 points from 15 games — 1. SNL.
- Bravo have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Maribor.
- Aluminij have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Brinje-Grosuplje.
- Last 6 meetings: Bravo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Aluminij 0–0 Bravo.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bravo vs Aluminij
Has the model earned this number?
Bravo at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bravo vs Aluminij
Bravo
1. SNL
- W2-1Maribor7 November 2026
- L1-2Koper2 November 2026
- D0-0away to Brinje-Grosuplje29 October 2026
- D2-2Radomlje17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nafta11 October 2026
Aluminij
1. SNL
- L0-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje8 November 2026
- W5-0Radomlje31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Nafta28 October 2026
- L0-1Olimpija Ljubljana16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Celje10 October 2026
What these results say
- Bravo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bravo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminij failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminij failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aluminij had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bravo | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bravo
Chance to finish in the top four · 41% today
Aluminij
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bravo vs Aluminij
- 5 September 2026Aluminij 0–0 Bravo1. SNL
- 23 April 2026Bravo 0–1 AluminijCup
- 19 April 2026Aluminij 0–1 Bravo1. SNL
- 16 February 2026Bravo 2–1 Aluminij1. SNL
- 24 October 2025Aluminij 1–3 Bravo1. SNL
- 9 August 2025Bravo 1–2 Aluminij1. SNL
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bravo a 2% chance of the title and Aluminij 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bravo the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bravo against 1.03 for Aluminij. Bravo's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.51 for Aluminij.
How the model reaches 46% for Bravo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bravo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Bravo's ratings add 2 points and Aluminij's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Bravo's ratings45%+2
- Aluminij's ratings46%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bravo at home · Aluminij away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Bravo 15, Aluminij 15.
Aluminij score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Bravo have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bravo
- at Celje5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 18%
- at Olimpija Ljubljana30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 24%
- vs Nafta6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 49%
- at Radomlje10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 43%
Aluminij
- vs Mura5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 53%
- vs Maribor30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 37%
- vs Celje6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 29%
- at Olimpija Ljubljana10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.