St. Louis City
vs
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% St. Louis City, 27% draw, 30% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: St. Louis City 2.00, Minnesota United FC 1.46.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC
St. Louis City
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
- D3-3FC Dallas30 August 2026
- W2-1Houston Dynamo23 August 2026
Minnesota United FC
- L1-2FC Dallas10 September 2026
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
- D3-3Orlando City SC30 August 2026
- W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 41 |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC
- 27 July 2025St. Louis City 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- 18 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Minnesota United FC 4–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 15 September 2024St. Louis City 1–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC
St. Louis City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah13 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
St. Louis City carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.58 for Minnesota United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for St. Louis City and 1.46 for Minnesota United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Louis City rate 0.75 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Minnesota United FC rate 0.91 and 1.64.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St. Louis City a 4.7% chance of the title and Minnesota United FC 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for St. Louis City against 1.46 for Minnesota United FC. St. Louis City's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.64 for Minnesota United FC.