St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% St. Louis City, 27% draw, 27% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. BurkiG
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 27F. FallD
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 21D. PolvaraM
- 6C. WallemM
- 19C. HolseM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 20Rafael SantosM
- 11S. BecherF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 39B. LundtG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 14T. TotlandD
- 4M. MbackeD
- 8C. DurkinM
- 7T. OstrakM
- 77S. JeongF
- 42D. DownsF
- 23A. MatanM
- 12D. CallenderG
- 67C. HarveyD
- 15M. BoxallD
- 5N. RomeroD
- 3K. DuncanM
- 30O. GeneM
- 20W. TrappM
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 26J. PereyraF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 1A. SmirG
- 28J. DiazD
- 33K. ChandlerD
- 27D. TaylorD
- 16A. JacksonM
- 25N. TriantisD
- 11M. MaloneF
- 22M. CaldeiraF
- 18M. GonzalezF
Form going into St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
- D3-3FC Dallas30 August 2026
- W2-1Houston Dynamo23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sporting Kansas City20 August 2026
Minnesota United FC
All competitions we cover
- L1-2FC Dallas10 September 2026
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
- D3-3Orlando City SC30 August 2026
- W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
- L1-2Atlanta United FC20 August 2026
What these results say
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Minnesota United FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 51 |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC
- 27 July 2025St. Louis City 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- 18 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Minnesota United FC 4–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 15 September 2024St. Louis City 1–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah183
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Louis City beat Minnesota United FC 4–2. The model had made a win for St. Louis City its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. Chancalay 5' for Minnesota United FC, D. Edelman 18' for St. Louis City, C. Holse 22' for St. Louis City, Rafael Navarro 38' for St. Louis City, Rafael Navarro (penalty) 57' for St. Louis City, K. Yeboah (penalty) 61' for Minnesota United FC. Sent off: Kyle Duncan (Minnesota United FC) 80'. On expected goals it finished 2.85–1.75.
How the call on St. Louis City v Minnesota United FC has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is St. Louis City's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- St. Louis City win46%▲ +6
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Minnesota United FC win27%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.