Real Salt Lake
vs
New York City FC
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Real Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Real Salt Lake, 31% draw, 36% New York City FC — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.14, New York City FC 1.25.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC
Real Salt Lake
- L1-2away to Houston Dynamo10 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Orlando City SC22 August 2026
New York City FC
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
- D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
- D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Cincinnati19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC
- 24 January 2025Real Salt Lake 2–2 New York City FCFriendlies Clubs
- 24 January 2025Real Salt Lake 2–2 New York City FCFriendlies Clubs
- 11 June 2023Real Salt Lake 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 April 2022New York City FC 6–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 4 August 2019Real Salt Lake 3–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 11 April 2018New York City FC 4–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and New York City FC
Real Salt Lake
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Real Salt Lake carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.53 for New York City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.25 for New York City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Salt Lake rate 0.62 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York City FC rate 0.57 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York City FC the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Real Salt Lake against 1.25 for New York City FC. Real Salt Lake's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.13 for New York City FC.