13 September 2026, 01:30 UTC

Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

America First Field, Sandy
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Real Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Real Salt Lake, 30% draw, 32% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Real Salt Lake at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Salt Lake0%Draw1%New York City FC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

41'
⚽N. Mercauassist: A. Ojeda
🔁J. J. Ariasout: K. Henry
57'
🔁L. Moisaout: C. Guske
57'
61'
⚽Luighiassist: A. Ojeda
Alexandros Katranis
64'
🔁P. Quintonout: A. Hezarkhani
67'
🔁S. Solansout: Lineker Rodrigues
67'
Lineker Rodrigues
69'
72'
🔁Luighiout: B. Traore
🔁M. Guilavoguiout: T. Booth
76'
80'
🔁N. Cavalloout: K. O'Toole
80'
🔁J. Shoreout: A. O'Neill
81'
Kevin O'Toole
88'
🔁H. Wolfout: A. Martinez
90+8'
Matthew Freese

Match stats — Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC

53%Possession47%
15Shots6
6On target3
10Corners1
1.09xG0.51

Goals against chances

Real Salt Lake0 from 1.09 xGless than the chances were worth
New York City FC2 from 0.51 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Salt Lake 3-4-3
  • 1Rafael CabralG
  • 2D. YedlinD
  • 21J. J. AriasD
  • 26P. QuintonD
  • 98A. KatranisM
  • 92N. CaliskanM
  • 34L. MoisaM
  • 8J. SanabriaM
  • 9M. GuilavoguiF
  • 22S. SolansF
  • 12S. LobjanidzeF
Substitutes
  • 31M. StajduharG
  • 3K. HenryD
  • 77R. MesallesD
  • 39A. HezarkhaniF
  • 25C. GuskeM
  • 14E. EneliM
  • 18T. BoothF
  • 13J. ShokalookF
  • 70Lineker RodriguesF
Coach: Pablo Mastroeni
New York City FC 4-3-3
  • 49M. FreeseG
  • 24T. GrayD
  • 13Thiago MartinsD
  • 6J. SandsD
  • 2N. CavalloD
  • 32J. ShoreM
  • 7N. MercauM
  • 8A. PereaM
  • 26A. OjedaF
  • 20LuighiF
  • 17H. WolfF
Substitutes
  • 30T. RomeroG
  • 22K. O'TooleD
  • 34Raul GustavoD
  • 23M. MurrayD
  • 21A. O'NeillM
  • 35M. IlenicD
  • 9B. TraoreF
  • 88M. JonesF
  • 16A. MartinezF
Coach: Pascal Jansen

Form going into Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC

Real Salt Lake

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Houston Dynamo10 September 2026
  • D2-2Los Angeles FC6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Orlando City SC22 August 2026
  • L3-4FC Dallas20 August 2026

New York City FC

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
  • D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Cincinnati19 August 2026

What these results say

  • Real Salt Lake did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Real Salt Lake conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Real Salt Lake scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • New York City FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • New York City FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • New York City FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Real Salt Lake32126145049+142
12New York City FC32911124744+338

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC

  • 24 January 2025Real Salt Lake 2–2 New York City FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 24 January 2025Real Salt Lake 2–2 New York City FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 11 June 2023Real Salt Lake 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 17 April 2022New York City FC 6–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 4 August 2019Real Salt Lake 3–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 11 April 2018New York City FC 4–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and New York City FC

Real Salt Lake

GoalsAssists

  • S. Solans144

New York City FC

GoalsAssists

  • N. Fernández Mercau165

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

New York City FC won 2–0 at Real Salt Lake. The model had leaned towards a win for Real Salt Lake at 38% and given a win for New York City FC 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: N. Mercau 41' for New York City FC, Luighi 61' for New York City FC. On expected goals it finished 1.09–0.51.

How the call on Real Salt Lake v New York City FC has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is New York City FC's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Real Salt Lake win38%=
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. New York City FC win32%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.