13 September 2026, 10:15 UTC

Excelsior vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction & result

Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Excelsior 1-2 Utrecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Excelsior, 29% draw, 27% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Excelsior at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Excelsior4%Draw93%Utrecht3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
⚽Artem Stepanov
62'
🔁Ángel Alarcónout: Marius Broholm
62'
🔁Artem Stepanovout: Yoann Cathline
62'
🔁Adrian Blakeout: S. van Duijn
🔁David Gardenout: Mario Domínguez Franco
70'
🔁Kasey Bosout: Simon Janssen
70'
🔁Eric da Silva Moreiraout: Valentin Sulzbacher
70'
Valentin Sulzbacher
71'
⚽Aymen slitiassist: Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
77'
🔁Ágúst Orri Thorsteinssonout: Alireza Jahanbakhsh
80'
81'
🔁Niklas Vesterlundout: Joris van Overeem
🔁Lennard Hartjesout: Giulliano Cairo
85'
Mario Domínguez Franco
85'
90+2'
⚽Dani De Wit
90+4'
🔁Arthur Zagreout: Jakov Medic

Match stats — Excelsior vs Utrecht

56%Possession44%
10Shots12
4On target6
5Corners2

Line-ups

Excelsior 4-1-4-1
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 12K. BosD
  • 3R. MeissenM
  • 7A. SlitiM
  • 8I. YegoianM
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 30Á. ÞorsteinssonM
  • 19D. GardenF
Substitutes
  • 16Celton BiaiG
  • 24Giulliano CairoM
  • 9Mario DomínguezF
  • 23Y. FineyM
  • 28N. GroenF
  • 11A. JahanbakhshF
  • 15S. JanssenD
  • 21I. Silva TimasF
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
Coach: R. den Uil
Utrecht 3-4-3
  • 1V. BarkasG
  • 2S. HoremansD
  • 3M. DiddenD
  • 5N. PanagiotouD
  • 23N. VesterlundM
  • 20D. de WitM
  • 34D. van den BergM
  • 92A. ZagréM
  • 11Ángel AlarcónF
  • 9Artem StepanovF
  • 15A. BlakeF
Substitutes
  • 39N. AmrabatF
  • 10Y. CathlineF
  • 33K. GadellaaG
  • 32P. KloosterboerD
  • 18J. MedićD
  • 6G. OfferhausD
  • 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
  • 22S. PadtG
  • 17S. van DuijnF
Coach: A. Correia

Form going into Excelsior vs Utrecht

Excelsior

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026
  • W2-1Sparta Rotterdam29 August 2026
  • L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026
  • W4-0away to Cambuur7 August 2026

Utrecht

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3GO Ahead Eagles8 September 2026
  • L1-6PSV Eindhoven30 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Sparta Rotterdam22 August 2026
  • L1-4AZ Alkmaar15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Groningen9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Excelsior scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Excelsior had three goals or more.
  • Utrecht did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Utrecht scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Excelsior103251619-311
11Utrecht103341727-1012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Utrecht

  • 26 April 2026Excelsior 5–0 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 24 August 2025Utrecht 4–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 27 January 2024Excelsior 1–1 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 12 November 2023Utrecht 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 25 January 2023Utrecht 1–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie

The full Excelsior vs Utrecht record →

Leading scorers: Excelsior and Utrecht

Excelsior

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Utrecht

GoalsAssists

  • Artem Stepanov50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Utrecht won 2–1 at Excelsior. The model had leaned towards a win for Excelsior at 44% and given a win for Utrecht 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Artem Stepanov 36' for Utrecht, Aymen sliti 77' for Excelsior, Dani De Wit 90+2' for Utrecht.

How the call on Excelsior v Utrecht has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 31% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Excelsior's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Excelsior win44%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Utrecht win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.