Regular Season - 6 · 13 September 2026, 10:15 UTC

Excelsior vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction & result

Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Excelsior 1-2 Utrecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Excelsior, 29% draw, 29% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Excelsior 1.55, Utrecht 1.07.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Excelsior vs Utrecht

52%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 11%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Excelsior at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Excelsior4%Draw93%Utrecht3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
⚽Artem Stepanov
62'
🔁Ángel Alarcónout: Marius Broholm
62'
🔁Artem Stepanovout: Yoann Cathline
62'
🔁Adrian Blakeout: S. van Duijn
🔁David Gardenout: Mario Domínguez Franco
70'
🔁Kasey Bosout: Simon Janssen
70'
🔁Eric da Silva Moreiraout: Valentin Sulzbacher
70'
Valentin Sulzbacher
71'
⚽Aymen slitiassist: Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
77'
🔁Ágúst Orri Thorsteinssonout: Alireza Jahanbakhsh
80'
81'
🔁Niklas Vesterlundout: Joris van Overeem
🔁Lennard Hartjesout: Giulliano Cairo
85'
Mario Domínguez Franco
85'
90+2'
⚽Dani De Wit
90+4'
🔁Arthur Zagreout: Jakov Medic

Match stats — Excelsior vs Utrecht

56%Possession44%
10Shots12
4On target6
5Corners2

Line-ups

Excelsior 4-1-4-1
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 12K. BosD
  • 3R. MeissenM
  • 7A. SlitiM
  • 8I. YegoianM
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 30Á. ÞorsteinssonM
  • 19D. GardenF
Substitutes
  • 16Celton BiaiG
  • 24Giulliano CairoM
  • 9Mario DomínguezF
  • 23Y. FineyM
  • 28N. GroenF
  • 11A. JahanbakhshF
  • 15S. JanssenD
  • 21I. Silva TimasF
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
Coach: R. den Uil
Utrecht 3-4-3
  • 1V. BarkasG
  • 2S. HoremansD
  • 3M. DiddenD
  • 5N. PanagiotouD
  • 23N. VesterlundM
  • 20D. de WitM
  • 34D. van den BergM
  • 92A. ZagréM
  • 11Ángel AlarcónF
  • 9Artem StepanovF
  • 15A. BlakeF
Substitutes
  • 39N. AmrabatF
  • 10Y. CathlineF
  • 33K. GadellaaG
  • 32P. KloosterboerD
  • 18J. MedićD
  • 6G. OfferhausD
  • 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
  • 22S. PadtG
  • 17S. van DuijnF
Coach: A. Correia

Form going into Excelsior vs Utrecht

Excelsior

  • D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026
  • W2-1Sparta Rotterdam29 August 2026
  • L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026

Utrecht

  • D3-3GO Ahead Eagles8 September 2026
  • L1-6PSV Eindhoven30 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Sparta Rotterdam22 August 2026
  • L1-4AZ Alkmaar15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Excelsior6312137+610
14Utrecht61231119-85

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Utrecht

  • 13 September 2026Excelsior 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 26 April 2026Excelsior 5–0 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 24 August 2025Utrecht 4–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 27 January 2024Excelsior 1–1 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 12 November 2023Utrecht 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 25 January 2023Utrecht 1–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie

Leading scorers: Excelsior and Utrecht

Excelsior

  • D. Garden3 goals

Utrecht

  • Artem Stepanov5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.55 goals for Excelsior and 1.07 for Utrecht; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Artem Stepanov 36' (Utrecht), Aymen sliti 77' (Excelsior), Dani De Wit 90' (Utrecht).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Excelsior the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Excelsior against 1.07 for Utrecht. Excelsior's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.16 for Utrecht.