Sporting Kansas City
vs
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 3-1 Los Angeles FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Sporting Kansas City, 27% draw, 32% Los Angeles FC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.85, Los Angeles FC 1.46.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Kansas City at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC
Sporting Kansas City
- L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC23 August 2026
- D1-1St. Louis City20 August 2026
Los Angeles FC
- W2-0New York Red Bulls10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United29 August 2026
- D1-1Portland Timbers23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC
- 26 July 2026Los Angeles FC 4–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 9 June 2025Los Angeles FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2025Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 26 September 2024Los Angeles FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityUS Open Cup
- 10 March 2024Los Angeles FC 0–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and Los Angeles FC
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Los Angeles FC
- D. Bouanga13 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sporting Kansas City carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.42 for Los Angeles FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.46 for Los Angeles FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Kansas City rate 0.72 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles FC rate 0.67 and 1.58.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Los Angeles FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting Kansas City a 0% chance of the title and Los Angeles FC 1.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Kansas City the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City against 1.46 for Los Angeles FC. Sporting Kansas City's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.58 for Los Angeles FC.