Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 3-1 Los Angeles FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sporting Kansas City, 28% draw, 35% Los Angeles FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Kansas City at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 3M. MosqueraD
- 28W. MeyerD
- 18E. KaricD
- 11Andre LuizM
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 14C. HarrisM
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 1J. PulskampG
- 15J. MillerD
- 57Diego BorgesD
- 99J. ReidD
- 16J. BartlettD
- 42A. CunninghamD
- 24R. RamosF
- 93S. SuleymanovF
- 29S. ReidF
- 1H. LlorisG
- 14S. PalenciaD
- 4E. SeguraD
- 91Nkosi TafariD
- 23Y. CheberkoD
- 66M. ChoiniereM
- 6Igor JesusM
- 22J. TerryM
- 9A. SiebF
- 7Son Heung-MinF
- 99D. BouangaF
- 31C. CarterG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 45K. NielsenD
- 33A. LongD
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 19T. BoydF
- 18J. ShaffelburgF
- 21R. RaposoM
- 17J. EbobisseF
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC
Sporting Kansas City
All competitions we cover
- L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC23 August 2026
- D1-1St. Louis City20 August 2026
- L0-2away to Colorado Rapids16 August 2026
Los Angeles FC
All competitions we cover
- W2-0New York Red Bulls10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United29 August 2026
- D1-1Portland Timbers23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids20 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Kansas City did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 32 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 38 | 80 | -42 | 22 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 35 | +15 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC
- 26 July 2026Los Angeles FC 4–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 9 June 2025Los Angeles FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2025Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 26 September 2024Los Angeles FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityUS Open Cup
- 10 March 2024Los Angeles FC 0–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and Los Angeles FC
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga185
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting Kansas City beat Los Angeles FC 3–1. The model had made a win for Sporting Kansas City its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Andre Luiz 18' for Sporting Kansas City, T. Calheira 31' for Sporting Kansas City, D. Bouanga 47' for Los Angeles FC, J. Bartlett 71' for Sporting Kansas City. On expected goals it finished 1.95–2.19.
How the call on Sporting Kansas City v Los Angeles FC has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Los Angeles FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sporting Kansas City win37%=
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Los Angeles FC win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.