Los Angeles Galaxy
vs
Seattle Sounders
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-1 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Los Angeles Galaxy, 30% draw, 33% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Los Angeles Galaxy 1.32, Seattle Sounders 1.20.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles Galaxy
- L0-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps10 September 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution6 September 2026
- L1-3away to San Diego30 August 2026
- D2-2away to CF Montreal22 August 2026
Seattle Sounders
- D0-0New York Red Bulls6 September 2026
- D2-2Chicago Fire29 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Cincinnati22 August 2026
- L1-2Austin20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 30 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders
- 17 May 2026Seattle Sounders 0–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2025Seattle Sounders 2–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 28 August 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–2 Seattle SoundersLeagues Cup
- 11 August 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–4 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 1 December 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 9 August 2024Seattle Sounders 3–1 Los Angeles GalaxyLeagues Cup
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Los Angeles Galaxy carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.47 for Seattle Sounders. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.20 for Seattle Sounders. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.64 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Seattle Sounders rate 0.58 and 1.27.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Los Angeles Galaxy against 1.2 for Seattle Sounders. Los Angeles Galaxy's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.27 for Seattle Sounders.