Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-1 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Los Angeles Galaxy, 30% draw, 32% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. MarcinkowskiG
- 2Lucas CalegariD
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 15J. HaakD
- 14J. NelsonD
- 18M. ReusM
- 6S. RobertoM
- 27E. ThommyM
- 21R. TaylorF
- 7K. FuruhashiF
- 11H. LozanoF
- 1N. MicovicG
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 26H. MillerD
- 3J. AudeD
- 25C. GarcesD
- 17P. RuizM
- 8L. SanabriaM
- 76T. ElgersmaM
- 99Joao KlaussF
- 26A. ThomasG
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
- 16A. RoldanD
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 5NouhouD
- 7C. RoldanM
- 37S. BrunellM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 11A. RusnakM
- 14P. RothrockM
- 9D. JoveljicF
- 24S. FreiG
- 20Kim Kee-HeeD
- 4R. SailorD
- 31H. DotsonM
- 45P. KingstonM
- 8C. ClarkM
- 90S. GomezM
- 17P. ArriolaF
- 19D. MusovskiF
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles Galaxy
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps10 September 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution6 September 2026
- L1-3away to San Diego30 August 2026
- D2-2away to CF Montreal22 August 2026
- W1-0San Jose Earthquakes20 August 2026
Seattle Sounders
All competitions we cover
- D0-0New York Red Bulls6 September 2026
- D2-2Chicago Fire29 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Cincinnati22 August 2026
- L1-2Austin20 August 2026
- L0-2Vancouver Whitecaps17 August 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles Galaxy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy had three goals or more.
- Seattle Sounders did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 41 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders
- 17 May 2026Seattle Sounders 0–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2025Seattle Sounders 2–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 28 August 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–2 Seattle SoundersLeagues Cup
- 11 August 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–4 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 1 December 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 9 August 2024Seattle Sounders 3–1 Los Angeles GalaxyLeagues Cup
The result against the call
Los Angeles Galaxy and Seattle Sounders drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Los Angeles Galaxy at 38% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Reus (penalty) 44' for Los Angeles Galaxy, P. Arriola 81' for Seattle Sounders. On expected goals it finished 2.48–2.20.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.