12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

AC Oulu vs Gnistan Finnish Premier League prediction & result

OTC Stadion, Oulu
Full time1 – 2

Final score: AC Oulu 1-2 Gnistan.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% AC Oulu, 29% draw, 34% Gnistan — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AC Oulu at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

42'
Adam Jouhi
47'
Bogdan Milovanov
58'
⚽M. Pitkanen (OG)
60'
🔁S. Ylatupaout: R. Eremenko
🔁C. Trianaout: L. Ghezali
61'
70'
🔁J. Latonenout: O. Hannula
🔁T. Kaukuaout: N. Jokelainen
71'
🔁M. Arsaloout: J. Paananen
71'
🔁out: E. Kallio
71'
⚽J. Paananen
75'
77'
Rachide Gnanou
82'
⚽R. Eremenko (pen)
🔁O. Kemppainenout: S. Sipola
84'
86'
🔁A. Atarahout: S. Eremenko
Julius Paananen
90'

Match stats — AC Oulu vs Gnistan

53%Possession47%
11Shots13
5On target4
3Corners3

Line-ups

AC Oulu 4-2-3-1
  • 13M. SantosG
  • 16O. KemppainenD
  • 5M. PitkanenD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 18A. CassamaM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 21I. MendolinM
  • 10C. TrianaF
  • 7R. KarjalainenM
  • 22T. KaukuaD
  • 9R. RiskiF
Substitutes
  • 99N. SchulzG
  • 29S. SilanderD
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 3A. LietsaD
  • 14N. JokelainenM
  • 8M. OjalaM
  • 6J. PaananenM
  • 27E. KallioM
  • 11L. GhezaliM
Coach: Mikko Isokangas
Gnistan 3-4-3
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 3RuxiD
  • 24R. GnanouD
  • 67A. ObileyeD
  • 19B. MilovanovD
  • 15G. EuropaeusM
  • 31A. JouhiM
  • 12E. Arko-MensahD
  • 23S. YlatupaM
  • 10J. LatonenF
  • 7A. AtarahF
Substitutes
  • 13O. LyberopoulosG
  • 2B. DahlstromD
  • 25N. RossiD
  • 26R. EremenkoF
  • 27O. HannulaM
  • 14S. EremenkoM
  • 45K. LaunialaF
Coach: Jussi Leppalahti

Form going into AC Oulu vs Gnistan

AC Oulu

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026
  • D0-0SJK31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to FF Jaro22 August 2026
  • L2-3Inter Turku16 August 2026
  • L0-1HJK Helsinki9 August 2026

Gnistan

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1KuPS8 September 2026
  • D1-1Turku PS31 August 2026
  • W3-2away to HJK Helsinki23 August 2026
  • W3-2Ilves17 August 2026
  • D2-2away to SJK7 August 2026

What these results say

  • AC Oulu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for AC Oulu had two goals or fewer.
  • Gnistan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Gnistan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gnistan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4AC Oulu30135123637-144
5Gnistan30111094442+243

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Oulu vs Gnistan

  • 18 July 2026AC Oulu 0–2 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 4 April 2026Gnistan 1–5 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 25 August 2025Gnistan 3–2 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 10 May 2025AC Oulu 2–3 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 27 September 2024Gnistan 1–0 AC OuluFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: AC Oulu and Gnistan

AC Oulu

GoalsAssists

  • R. Karjalainen36

Gnistan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Akinyemi50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gnistan won 2–1 at AC Oulu. The model had leaned towards a win for AC Oulu at 37% and given a win for Gnistan 34%. The goals: M. Pitkanen (own goal) 58' for Gnistan, J. Paananen 75' for AC Oulu, R. Eremenko (penalty) 82' for Gnistan.

How the call on AC Oulu v Gnistan has moved

First published on 3 Sep at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.

  1. AC Oulu win37%▼ −1
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Gnistan win34%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.