FC Dallas
vs
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: FC Dallas 2-1 Portland Timbers.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% FC Dallas, 28% draw, 30% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Dallas 1.66, Portland Timbers 1.23.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Dallas at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers
FC Dallas
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC10 September 2026
- W4-3Sporting Kansas City6 September 2026
- D3-3away to St. Louis City30 August 2026
- L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
Portland Timbers
- D2-2St. Louis City10 September 2026
- W5-4Minnesota United FC6 September 2026
- L1-2Austin30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 43 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers
- 23 July 2026Portland Timbers 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2025Portland Timbers 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2025FC Dallas 2–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024Portland Timbers 0–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2024FC Dallas 3–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 12 June 2023Portland Timbers 1–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Portland Timbers
FC Dallas
- P. Musa18 goals5 assists
Portland Timbers
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 47 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Dallas carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.49 for Portland Timbers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for FC Dallas and 1.23 for Portland Timbers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Dallas rate 0.65 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portland Timbers rate 0.76 and 1.57.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Dallas a 13.8% chance of the title and Portland Timbers 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC Dallas against 1.23 for Portland Timbers. FC Dallas's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.57 for Portland Timbers.