13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers Major League Soccer prediction & result

Toyota Stadium, Frisco
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Dallas 2-1 Portland Timbers.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% FC Dallas, 28% draw, 31% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Dallas at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Dallas99%Draw1%Portland Timbers0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Farringtonassist: S. Moore
45'
Kaick
47'
56'
🔁J. Ortizout: A. Lassiter
🔁R. Binyaminout: H. Johansson
63'
🔁S. Morenoout: C. Cappis
63'
64'
🔁O. Fernandezout: G. Guerra
🔁Ramiroout: P. Delgado
77'
🔁L. Farringtonout: P. Musa
77'
83'
🔁I. Smithout: K. Miller
⚽J. Valienteassist: P. Musa
87'
🔁B. Kamungoout: L. Abubakar
88'
90'
⚽A. Lassiterassist: G. Guerra

Match stats — FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers

39%Possession61%
9Shots17
5On target4
7Corners5
1.2xG1.25

Goals against chances

FC Dallas2 from 1.20 xGmore than the chances were worth
Portland Timbers1 from 1.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Dallas 3-4-2-1
  • 42DanielG
  • 18S. MooreD
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 77B. KamungoM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 55KaickM
  • 6R. BinyaminM
  • 21J. ValienteF
  • 10S. MorenoF
  • 23L. FarringtonF
Substitutes
  • 40J. SiroisG
  • 24J. TorquatoD
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 8P. DelgadoM
  • 33C. HolstadM
  • 28S. SarverF
  • 9P. MusaF
Coach: Eric Quill
Portland Timbers 4-2-3-1
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 12R. HernandezD
  • 20F. SurmanD
  • 2J. WatermanD
  • 23I. SmithD
  • 21D. CharaM
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 11AntonyM
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 99K. VeldeM
  • 22O. FernandezF
Substitutes
  • 26H. SulteG
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 6A. BonetigD
  • 4K. MillerD
  • 16S. JuraD
  • 88G. GuerraF
  • 7A. LassiterF
Coach: Jack Cassidy

Form going into FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers

FC Dallas

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Minnesota United FC10 September 2026
  • W4-3Sporting Kansas City6 September 2026
  • D3-3away to St. Louis City30 August 2026
  • L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
  • W4-3away to Real Salt Lake20 August 2026

Portland Timbers

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2St. Louis City10 September 2026
  • W5-4Minnesota United FC6 September 2026
  • L1-2Austin30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Los Angeles FC23 August 2026
  • W3-1San Diego20 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Dallas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Dallas had three goals or more.
  • FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Portland Timbers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Portland Timbers.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Dallas3215985849+954
11Portland Timbers32117145760-340

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers

  • 23 July 2026Portland Timbers 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 28 September 2025Portland Timbers 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 10 August 2025FC Dallas 2–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 6 October 2024Portland Timbers 0–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 5 July 2024FC Dallas 3–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 12 June 2023Portland Timbers 1–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Portland Timbers

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa225

Portland Timbers

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Dallas beat Portland Timbers 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FC Dallas at 41%. The goals: L. Farrington 45' for FC Dallas, J. Valiente 87' for FC Dallas, A. Lassiter 90' for Portland Timbers. On expected goals it finished 1.20–1.25.

How the call on FC Dallas v Portland Timbers has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is FC Dallas's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FC Dallas win41%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Portland Timbers win31%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.