Colorado Rapids
vs
CF Montreal
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Colorado Rapids 1-0 CF Montreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Colorado Rapids, 31% draw, 29% CF Montreal — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Colorado Rapids 1.35, CF Montreal 0.96.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colorado Rapids at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal
Colorado Rapids
- D1-1away to Austin10 September 2026
- L0-3away to Columbus Crew5 September 2026
- W1-0Real Salt Lake30 August 2026
- L0-3away to San Diego23 August 2026
CF Montreal
- L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
- L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal
- 23 June 2024Colorado Rapids 4–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 4 August 2019Colorado Rapids 6–3 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 7 July 2018CF Montreal 2–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 1 October 2017Colorado Rapids 2–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 30 April 2016CF Montreal 2–2 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Colorado Rapids and CF Montreal
Colorado Rapids
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
CF Montreal
- P. Owusu13 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Colorado Rapids carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.41 for CF Montreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Colorado Rapids and 0.96 for CF Montreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Colorado Rapids rate 0.59 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Montreal rate 0.58 and 1.41.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colorado Rapids the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Colorado Rapids against 0.96 for CF Montreal. Colorado Rapids's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.41 for CF Montreal.