Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Colorado Rapids 1-0 CF Montreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Colorado Rapids, 30% draw, 30% CF Montreal — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colorado Rapids at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41N. HansenG
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 5L. WilliamsD
- 29M. NavarroD
- 12J. AtencioM
- 8H. OjediranM
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 32D. PhillipF
- 77D. YapiF
- 93G. MinoungouF
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 99J. TravisD
- 24N. CobbD
- 94V. RinaldiD
- 13W. FrederickM
- 16A. HarrisF
- 7M. WhittakerF
- 9S. Abu FarkhiF
- 1S. BrezaG
- 3B. CeballosD
- 2J. NealD
- 24E. MoralesD
- 28V. RadojevicD
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 6S. PietteM
- 22V. LoturiM
- 17D. SealyF
- 9P. OwusuF
- 23N. StreitF
- 41S. KeitaG
- 27D. BugajD
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 5B. CraigD
- 29O. EscobarF
- 10A. SanchezF
- 21F. HerbersF
- 14D. RiosF
- 18G. SynchukM
Form going into Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal
Colorado Rapids
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Austin10 September 2026
- L0-3away to Columbus Crew5 September 2026
- W1-0Real Salt Lake30 August 2026
- L0-3away to San Diego23 August 2026
- W1-0Los Angeles FC20 August 2026
CF Montreal
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
- L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew19 August 2026
What these results say
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 44 | 43 | +1 | 43 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal
- 23 June 2024Colorado Rapids 4–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 4 August 2019Colorado Rapids 6–3 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 7 July 2018CF Montreal 2–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 1 October 2017Colorado Rapids 2–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 30 April 2016CF Montreal 2–2 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Colorado Rapids and CF Montreal
Colorado Rapids
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Colorado Rapids beat CF Montreal 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Colorado Rapids at 40%. The goal: P. Aaronson (penalty) 43' for Colorado Rapids. On expected goals it finished 2.07–0.73.
How the call on Colorado Rapids v CF Montreal has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is Colorado Rapids's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Colorado Rapids win40%▼ −5
- Draw30%▲ +1
- CF Montreal win30%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.