St Johnstone vs Falkirk Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Johnstone 1-1 Falkirk.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% St Johnstone, 30% draw, 29% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Johnstone at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Johnstone vs Falkirk
Line-ups
- 1T. StewardG
- 33L. SmithD
- 5Z. MitchellD
- 3C. DiabateD
- 2E. AlıçD
- 42R. McAlearM
- 8J. HoltM
- 32J. CampbellM
- 30J. CotterillM
- 7T. StevenM
- 9J. FowlerF
- 19D. FinlaysonD
- 18K. FotheringhamF
- 14M. FouldsD
- 99R. PatonF
- 22D. SchmidtF
- 20R. SinclairG
- 11S. StantonM
- 25M. TaitM
- 26M. ToddM
- 19S. BainG
- 22R. StrainD
- 21D. MeļņiksD
- 5L. HendersonD
- 3L. McCannD
- 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
- 8B. SpencerM
- 23E. RossM
- 28B. KrauhausM
- 42Owen EamesM
- 24J. MurrellF
- 99C. FodreyM
- 1N. HogarthG
- 9R. MacIverF
- 4J. McMillanD
- 15L. NeilsonD
- 7Ben ParkinsonF
- 10C. SibbaldM
- 17S. TanserD
- 47A. DohertyF
Form going into St Johnstone vs Falkirk
St Johnstone
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
- W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian29 August 2026
- L0-1away to St Mirren8 August 2026
Falkirk
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
- L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Celtic29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Motherwell9 August 2026
What these results say
- St Johnstone conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | St Johnstone | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 13 |
| 6 | Falkirk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Falkirk
- 8 July 2025St Johnstone 0–1 FalkirkFriendlies Clubs
- 24 July 2018St Johnstone 1–0 FalkirkLeague Cup
Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Falkirk
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler61
Falkirk
GoalsAssists
- J. Murrell50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St Johnstone and Falkirk drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for St Johnstone at 41% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ethan Ross 60' for Falkirk, Enes Alic 90+6' for St Johnstone. Sent off: Cheick Diabate (St Johnstone) 53'.
How the call on St Johnstone v Falkirk has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 30% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is St Johnstone's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- St Johnstone win41%▼ −2
- Draw30%=
- Falkirk win29%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.