St Johnstone
vs
Falkirk
Premiership prediction
Our model says: St Johnstone 1–0 Falkirk
The model makes it 42% St Johnstone, 29% draw, 29% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: St Johnstone 1.59, Falkirk 1.16.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: St Johnstone vs Falkirk
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are St Johnstone wins, grey are draws, red are Falkirk wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Johnstone at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St Johnstone vs Falkirk
St Johnstone
- L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
- W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian29 August 2026
- L0-1away to St Mirren8 August 2026
Falkirk
- D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
- L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Celtic29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Motherwell9 August 2026
- L0-2St Mirren1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | St Johnstone | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Falkirk
- 8 July 2025St Johnstone 0–1 FalkirkFriendlies Clubs
- 24 July 2018St Johnstone 1–0 FalkirkLeague Cup
Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Falkirk
St Johnstone
- J. Fowler4 goals1 assists
Falkirk
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
St Johnstone carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.34 for Falkirk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for St Johnstone and 1.16 for Falkirk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St Johnstone rate 0.55 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Falkirk rate 0.64 and 1.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St Johnstone a 0.2% chance of the title and Falkirk 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Johnstone the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for St Johnstone against 1.16 for Falkirk. St Johnstone's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.78 for Falkirk.