Dundee vs Motherwell Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Dundee 2-1 Motherwell.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dundee, 28% draw, 28% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dundee at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundee vs Motherwell
Line-ups
- 1O. GoodmanG
- 7D. WrightD
- 4R. AstleyD
- 5O. BevanD
- 12I. SamuelsD
- 14A. ForrestM
- 28C. JonesM
- 48E. HamiltonM
- 16J. MoorhouseM
- 19J. WestleyF
- 21B. FinkF
- 6M. AkinmboniD
- 27J. BevanM
- 60R. BlandM
- 2B. HallidayD
- 13K. O'HaraG
- 3I. OdutayoD
- 52C. OosenbrughD
- 9B. WalesF
- 47Ashton LeiperD
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 45M. EmmanuelD
- 8L. FadingerM
- 71J. HodgeM
- 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
- 11A. LowryM
- 19I. SaidM
- 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
- 13J. KangaM
- 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
- 63D. LevittM
- 21M. ConnellyG
- 2S. O'DonnellD
- 77W. VogtF
- 20Dylan WilliamsD
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 15E. BjörgólfssonF
Form going into Dundee vs Motherwell
Dundee
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian6 September 2026
- D1-1St Johnstone2 September 2026
- L1-2Hibernian30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Dundee United22 August 2026
- W2-0Aberdeen8 August 2026
Motherwell
All competitions we cover
- L0-4Aberdeen15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
- W3-0Dundee United2 September 2026
- D3-3away to St Mirren30 August 2026
- L1-4away to SC Freiburg27 August 2026
What these results say
- Dundee scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Motherwell had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dundee | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundee vs Motherwell
- 7 March 2026Dundee 2–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 20 December 2025Motherwell 1–0 DundeePremiership
- 13 September 2025Dundee 1–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 3 May 2025Dundee 1–2 MotherwellPremiership
- 26 February 2025Motherwell 2–1 DundeePremiership
Leading scorers: Dundee and Motherwell
Dundee
GoalsAssists
- B. Fink40
- A. Hay30
- J. Westley30
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dundee beat Motherwell 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Dundee at 44%. The goals: Joe Westley (penalty) 23' for Dundee, Bradley·Fink 40' for Dundee, Alex·Lowry 44' for Motherwell.
How the call on Dundee v Motherwell has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Dundee's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Dundee win44%▲ +9
- Draw28%=
- Motherwell win28%▼ −9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.