Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Holstein Kiel 1-1 VfL Osnabrück.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Holstein Kiel, 28% draw, 30% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Holstein Kiel at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück
Line-ups
- 1T. WeinerG
- 32H. SekineD
- 5N. MadsenD
- 26D. ZecD
- 40Leon ParduziD
- 28J. MeffertM
- 11G. de RegtM
- 8G. BalziM
- 15K. DavidsenM
- 20A. KaprálikM
- 19P. HarresF
- 9G. KvilitaiaF
- 13I. NekićD
- 44Mark Richter MonserratM
- 41Lio RothenhagenG
- 7S. SkrzybskiF
- 30T. TasdelenM
- 47J. TolkinD
- 27I. UgohM
- 43T. WieseM
- 32J. KrumreyG
- 27R. FabinskiD
- 24J. MüllerD
- 25N. WiemannD
- 31P. KammerbauerM
- 15B. JacobsenM
- 26F. WagnerM
- 42J. GómezM
- 21A. BeckM
- 11R. MeißnerM
- 22B. RiesselmannF
- 17L. RaimundF
- 19L. OpitzM
- 8L. MünstM
- 23T. LesueurF
- 7D. KyerehM
- 20T. JanottaD
- 28K. FaberD
- 4J. Abu HannaD
- 1N. SauterG
Form going into Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga
- L0-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim13 September 2026
VfL Osnabrück
2. Bundesliga
- L1-3Hertha BSC13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück
- 26 July 2025VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
- 13 April 2024Holstein Kiel 4–0 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
- 4 November 2023VfL Osnabrück 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 7 January 2023Holstein Kiel 5–3 VfL OsnabrückFriendlies Clubs
- 8 January 2022Holstein Kiel 3–2 VfL OsnabrückFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres53
VfL Osnabrück
GoalsAssists
- R. Meißner41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Holstein Kiel at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Phil Harres (penalty) 45+2' for Holstein Kiel, Hiroki Sekine (own goal) 72' for VfL Osnabrück. Sent off: David Zec (Holstein Kiel) 74'.
How the call on Holstein Kiel v VfL Osnabrück has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Holstein Kiel's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Holstein Kiel win42%▼ −2
- Draw28%=
- VfL Osnabrück win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.