Brighton vs Arsenal Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Brighton 3-0 Arsenal.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Brighton, 31% draw, 31% Arsenal — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brighton vs Arsenal
Line-ups
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 24F. KadıoğluD
- 44L. VuškovićD
- 4P. StruijkD
- 21O. BoscagliD
- 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
- 13P. GroßM
- 25D. GómezM
- 26Y. AyariM
- 29M. De CuyperM
- 19C. KostoulasF
- 12P. DavidF
- 35M. YalcouyéM
- 33M. O'RileyM
- 15I. OsmanF
- 10G. RutterF
- 30M. SvobodaD
- 20CostinhaD
- 3J. HadjamD
- 23J. SteeleG
- 1David RayaG
- 12J. TimberD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 41D. RiceM
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 7B. SakaM
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 17C. TzolisM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 13KepaG
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
- 10E. EzeM
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 56M. DowmanM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 20N. MaduekeF
Form going into Brighton vs Arsenal
Brighton
Premier League
- W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
Arsenal
Premier League
- W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 16 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Arsenal
- 4 March 2026Brighton 0–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 27 December 2025Arsenal 2–1 BrightonPremier League
- 29 October 2025Arsenal 2–0 BrightonLeague Cup
- 4 January 2025Brighton 1–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 31 August 2024Arsenal 1–1 BrightonPremier League
Leading scorers: Brighton and Arsenal
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß34
- C. Kostoulas32
- J. Hinshelwood30
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- B. Saka30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brighton beat Arsenal 3–0. The model had made a win for Brighton its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Pascal Groß 31' for Brighton, Charalampos Kostoulas 45' for Brighton, Chema Andrés 57' for Brighton.
How the call on Brighton v Arsenal has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 38% / 31% / 31%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Brighton win38%▲ +6
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Arsenal win31%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.