Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Kilmarnock 1-1 Heart of Midlothian.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Kilmarnock, 28% draw, 35% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kilmarnock at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian
Line-ups
- 12C. FerrieG
- 2J. BrandonD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 14G. StangerD
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 8E. RingM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 49B. RiceM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 9J. HugillF
- 39E. BowieD
- 37C. BurkeF
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 19J. MeierD
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 27I. OwenF
- 40C. ArmourG
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 1B. ReusG
- 2C. BorchgrevinkD
- 5J. McCartD
- 17S. FindlayD
- 3S. KingsleyD
- 7C. MillerM
- 78L. MendyM
- 22T. MagnússonM
- 15J. McPakeM
- 21J. WilsonF
- 10Cláudio BragaF
- 30R. FultonG
- 31Y. DhandaF
- 29S. KerjotaF
- 74R. MatoF
- 18H. MilneD
- 9J. WilliamsF
- 23J. AltenaD
- 8AgeuM
- 19S. GuendouzF
Form going into Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian
Kilmarnock
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Hibernian15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
Heart of Midlothian
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
- W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rapid Vienna26 August 2026
What these results say
- Kilmarnock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 8 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian
- 14 March 2026Kilmarnock 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 3 December 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 18 October 2025Kilmarnock 0–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 18 May 2025Kilmarnock 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 25 January 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–2 KilmarnockPremiership
Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and Heart of Midlothian
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- Cláudio Braga52
- C. Miller51
- J. McPake35
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kilmarnock and Heart of Midlothian drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Kilmarnock at 37% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jamie McCart (own goal) 16' for Kilmarnock, Stephen Kingsley 86' for Heart of Midlothian.
How the call on Kilmarnock v Heart of Midlothian has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Kilmarnock's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Kilmarnock win37%▼ −2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Heart of Midlothian win35%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.