Kilmarnock
vs
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Kilmarnock 2–1 Heart of Midlothian
The model makes it 37% Kilmarnock, 27% draw, 36% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.71, Heart of Midlothian 1.63.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Kilmarnock wins, grey are draws, red are Heart of Midlothian wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kilmarnock at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian
Kilmarnock
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
Heart of Midlothian
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
- W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
- W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian
- 14 March 2026Kilmarnock 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 3 December 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 18 October 2025Kilmarnock 0–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 18 May 2025Kilmarnock 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 25 January 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 15 December 2024Kilmarnock 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and Heart of Midlothian
Kilmarnock
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Heart of Midlothian
- J. McPake2 goals3 assists
- Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
- J. Wilson2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kilmarnock carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.38 for Heart of Midlothian. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.63 for Heart of Midlothian. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kilmarnock rate 0.57 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heart of Midlothian rate 0.71 and 1.84.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Heart of Midlothian, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kilmarnock a 0% chance of the title and Heart of Midlothian 17.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kilmarnock the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Kilmarnock against 1.63 for Heart of Midlothian. Kilmarnock's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.84 for Heart of Midlothian.