St Mirren vs Dundee United Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Mirren 0-3 Dundee United.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% St Mirren, 28% draw, 28% Dundee United — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Mirren at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Mirren vs Dundee United
Line-ups
- 1J. ChapmanG
- 47C. RamsayD
- 13A. GogićD
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 3D. JohnD
- 8R. CarrM
- 30F. TaylorM
- 19Ismeal KabiaM
- 88K. PhillipsM
- 48P. NsioM
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 26M. De BarrosD
- 6Louis JacksonD
- 37C. McEvoyM
- 23C. MochrieM
- 31R. MullenG
- 2J. RichardsonD
- 16L. ThomasM
- 20J. YoungF
- 24J. FarquharF
- 1J. WaltonG
- 23J. RawlinsD
- 3B. EsselinkD
- 18M. ForbesD
- 19K. CiubotaruD
- 14Zidane IqbalM
- 10D. TaitM
- 16L. CameronM
- 21J. RandallF
- 93I. MetsokoF
- 77D. BennieF
- 20N. FarrugiaF
- 11W. FerryM
- 4I. IovuD
- 22D. NaamoD
- 15L. RoseF
- 9Z. SapsfordM
- 26Abdoulaye YoroM
- 8Panutche CamaráM
- 30J. AmissahG
Form going into St Mirren vs Dundee United
St Mirren
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Rangers9 September 2026
- L1-2Celtic5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kilmarnock2 September 2026
- D3-3Motherwell30 August 2026
- W1-0St Johnstone8 August 2026
Dundee United
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Falkirk5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Motherwell2 September 2026
- W4-0away to Kilmarnock29 August 2026
- L0-2Dundee22 August 2026
- L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026
What these results say
- St Mirren scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundee United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundee United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | St Mirren | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
| 5 | Dundee United | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Dundee United
- 17 May 2026St Mirren 1–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 3 March 2026Dundee United 2–1 St MirrenPremiership
- 6 December 2025St Mirren 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 25 October 2025Dundee United 3–1 St MirrenPremiership
- 10 May 2025Dundee United 0–2 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: St Mirren and Dundee United
St Mirren
GoalsAssists
- K. Phillips32
Dundee United
GoalsAssists
- Z. Sapsford30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dundee United won 3–0 at St Mirren. The model had leaned towards a win for St Mirren at 44% and given a win for Dundee United 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jesse Randall 6' for Dundee United, Lyall Cameron 12' for Dundee United, Kevin Ciubotaru 45' for Dundee United.
How the call on St Mirren v Dundee United has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Dundee United's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- St Mirren win44%▼ −3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Dundee United win28%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.