Hibernian vs Aberdeen Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Hibernian 1-1 Aberdeen.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Hibernian, 29% draw, 33% Aberdeen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hibernian at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hibernian vs Aberdeen
Line-ups
- 1R. SallingerG
- 6J. KerrD
- 4G. HanleyD
- 15J. IredaleD
- 25F. PasslackM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 3A. MayorM
- 23C. WrightM
- 10M. BoyleF
- 7O. EldingF
- 19N. CaddenM
- 24J. DevaneyM
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 9N. LoweF
- 11J. NewellM
- 22A. ŠutoF
- 12Alex WilliamsD
- 35F. OwensG
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 27M. MüllerG
- 28C. CaddenD
- 22J. MilneD
- 5M. KnoesterD
- 21G. MolloyD
- 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
- 25C. RonanM
- 32A. AremuM
- 40F. MarshallM
- 20T. OlusanyaF
- 15K. NisbetF
- 26D. HappeD
- 30D. KleinG
- 14H. MahouM
- 9A. MoulouaF
- 11Lewis SmithF
- 7Tony YoganeF
- 2N. DevlinD
- 10A. BriedlM
- 17S. ArmstrongM
Form going into Hibernian vs Aberdeen
Hibernian
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Kilmarnock15 September 2026
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
- L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026
- L2-3Gent27 August 2026
Aberdeen
All competitions we cover
- W4-0away to Motherwell15 September 2026
- D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
- L0-1Rangers30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dundee8 August 2026
What these results say
- Hibernian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aberdeen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aberdeen failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hibernian | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Aberdeen
- 11 April 2026Aberdeen 2–0 HibernianPremiership
- 30 December 2025Hibernian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 26 October 2025Aberdeen 1–2 HibernianPremiership
- 26 April 2025Aberdeen 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 1 February 2025Hibernian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Aberdeen
Hibernian
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hibernian and Aberdeen drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Hibernian at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Kevin Nisbet 17' for Aberdeen, Martin Boyle (penalty) 62' for Hibernian.
How the call on Hibernian v Aberdeen has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Hibernian's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Hibernian win38%▼ −8
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Aberdeen win33%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.