Sporting Kansas City
vs
FC Dallas
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Sporting Kansas City 1–2 FC Dallas
The model makes it 30% Sporting Kansas City, 23% draw, 47% FC Dallas — fair odds of 3.33, 4.35 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.62, FC Dallas 2.18.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Dallas: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sporting Kansas City are bottom on 22 points from 29 games; FC Dallas are 3rd on 50 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Sporting Kansas City are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Nashville SC.
- FC Dallas have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Seattle Sounders.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Dallas 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended FC Dallas 4–3 Sporting Kansas City.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Dallas at 47% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas
Sporting Kansas City
- L0-4away to Nashville SC15 October 2026
- D3-3Portland Timbers11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
FC Dallas
- W1-0Seattle Sounders15 October 2026
- L2-3away to Charlotte10 October 2026
- W1-0Los Angeles FC27 September 2026
- D0-0Austin20 September 2026
- W2-1Portland Timbers13 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Kansas City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Dallas
Chance to finish in the top four · 88% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas
- 6 September 2026FC Dallas 4–3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 15 June 2025Sporting Kansas City 2–4 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 30 March 2025FC Dallas 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024FC Dallas 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 11 July 2024Sporting Kansas City 2–1 FC DallasUS Open Cup
- 8 July 2024Sporting Kansas City 3–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
FC Dallas
GoalsAssists
- P. Musa195
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sporting Kansas City carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.53 for FC Dallas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 2.18 for FC Dallas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Kansas City rate 0.63 in attack and 2.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Dallas rate 0.74 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting Kansas City a 0% chance of the title and FC Dallas 9.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City against 2.18 for FC Dallas. Sporting Kansas City's attack/defence rating is 0.63/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.4 for FC Dallas.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting Kansas City at home · FC Dallas away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Sporting Kansas City 29, FC Dallas 29.
FC Dallas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Sporting Kansas City have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Sporting Kansas City
- at San Diego8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 22%
FC Dallas
- vs Colorado Rapids8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.