New York City FC
vs
CF Montreal
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New York City FC 1–0 CF Montreal
The model makes it 55% New York City FC, 26% draw, 19% CF Montreal — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: New York City FC 1.81, CF Montreal 0.85.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to New York City FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- New York City FC are 10th on 33 points from 29 games; CF Montreal are bottom on 24 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- New York City FC are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Inter Miami.
- CF Montreal have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Atlanta United FC.
- Last 6 meetings: CF Montreal 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended CF Montreal 1–0 New York City FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: New York City FC vs CF Montreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 55% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into New York City FC vs CF Montreal
New York City FC
- L0-2away to Inter Miami14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
CF Montreal
- L0-3Atlanta United FC14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Toronto FC10 October 2026
- W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
What these results say
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | New York City FC | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 33 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
New York City FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs CF Montreal
- 25 April 2026CF Montreal 1–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 June 2025CF Montreal 1–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 10 May 2025New York City FC 0–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024CF Montreal 2–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 3 July 2024New York City FC 2–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 30 August 2023New York City FC 2–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York City FC and CF Montreal
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau154
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
New York City FC carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.27 for CF Montreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for New York City FC and 0.85 for CF Montreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York City FC rate 0.61 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Montreal rate 0.50 and 1.62.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York City FC the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for New York City FC against 0.85 for CF Montreal. New York City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.62 for CF Montreal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
New York City FC at home · CF Montreal away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: New York City FC 29, CF Montreal 29.
New York City FC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (11 goals); CF Montreal have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
New York City FC
- at DC United7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 37%
CF Montreal
- vs Vancouver Whitecaps7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.