Sporting Kansas City
vs
Real Salt Lake
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Real Salt Lake
The model makes it 36% Sporting Kansas City, 27% draw, 37% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.74, Real Salt Lake 1.75.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Sporting Kansas City are bottom on 21 points from 27 games; Real Salt Lake are 11th on 32 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Seattle Sounders.
- Real Salt Lake have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to New England Revolution.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Salt Lake 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Real Salt Lake 3–1 Sporting Kansas City.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Salt Lake at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
Sporting Kansas City
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
- W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026
- L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
Real Salt Lake
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
- L0-2New York City FC13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Houston Dynamo10 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Kansas City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Kansas City had three goals or more.
- Real Salt Lake failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 65 | -33 | 21 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
- 4 April 2026Real Salt Lake 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2025Real Salt Lake 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 20 June 2024Sporting Kansas City 3–4 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2024Real Salt Lake 1–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 8 October 2023Real Salt Lake 2–3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sporting Kansas City carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.4 for Real Salt Lake. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.75 for Real Salt Lake. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Kansas City rate 0.63 in attack and 1.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Salt Lake rate 0.61 and 1.51.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Salt Lake the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City against 1.75 for Real Salt Lake. Sporting Kansas City's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.51 for Real Salt Lake.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting Kansas City at home · Real Salt Lake away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Sporting Kansas City 27, Real Salt Lake 27.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sporting Kansas City
- vs Austin25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 36%
- at Minnesota United FC29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
- vs FC Dallas31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 31%
Real Salt Lake
- vs St. Louis City25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 32%
- at Austin29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 31%
- at San Jose Earthquakes31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.