Los Angeles Galaxy
vs
Austin
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Los Angeles Galaxy 2–1 Austin
The model makes it 45% Los Angeles Galaxy, 25% draw, 30% Austin — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Los Angeles Galaxy 1.80, Austin 1.38.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Los Angeles Galaxy are 8th on 39 points from 30 games; Austin are 14th on 31 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Portland Timbers.
- Austin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Los Angeles FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Austin 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Austin 1–2 Los Angeles Galaxy.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin
Los Angeles Galaxy
- W2-0Portland Timbers15 October 2026
- L2-6away to St. Louis City11 October 2026
- W3-2Colorado Rapids27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Minnesota United FC20 September 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
Austin
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC15 October 2026
- L1-4Nashville SC11 October 2026
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles Galaxy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy.
- Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 39 |
| 14 | Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin
- 11 April 2026Austin 1–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 1–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 19 April 2025Austin 1–0 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 5 February 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 1–1 AustinFriendlies Clubs
- 6 October 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 27 April 2024Austin 2–0 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Los Angeles Galaxy carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.37 for Austin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.38 for Austin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.63 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austin rate 0.60 and 1.56.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Los Angeles Galaxy against 1.38 for Austin. Los Angeles Galaxy's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.56 for Austin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Los Angeles Galaxy at home · Austin away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Los Angeles Galaxy 30, Austin 29.
Los Angeles Galaxy score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Austin have let in 20 there.
Austin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Los Angeles Galaxy have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Los Angeles Galaxy
- at Real Salt Lake8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 31%
Austin
- vs Portland Timbers8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.