Vejle
vs
HB Koge
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Vejle 2–1 HB Koge
The model makes it 58% Vejle, 23% draw, 19% HB Koge — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Vejle 2.22, HB Koge 1.05.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Vejle: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Vejle's rating is built from 14 1. Division (Denmark) matches and HB Koge's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Vejle are 2nd on 27 points from 14 games; HB Koge are 11th on 12 points from 14 games — 1. Division.
- Vejle are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to FC Fredericia.
- HB Koge are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Aalborg.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 July 2026, ended HB Koge 0–2 Vejle.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vejle vs HB Koge
Has the model earned this number?
Vejle at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vejle vs HB Koge
Vejle
1. Division
- W1-0FC Fredericia6 November 2026
- D1-1away to Vendsyssel FF1 November 2026
- D0-0Aarhus Fremad24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Aalborg17 October 2026
- L1-2Hvidovre9 October 2026
HB Koge
1. Division
- D1-1Aalborg6 November 2026
- L2-3away to Kolding IF31 October 2026
- D2-2away to Hvidovre23 October 2026
- L2-3AB Copenhagen16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 October 2026
What these results say
- Vejle scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vejle had two goals or fewer.
- HB Koge scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- HB Koge failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- HB Koge conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vejle | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 27 |
| 11 | HB Koge | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vejle
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 19% today
HB Koge
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 60% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Vejle vs HB Koge
- 31 July 2026HB Koge 0–2 Vejle1. Division
- 24 February 2023HB Koge 0–0 Vejle1. Division
- 3 September 2022Vejle 1–2 HB Koge1. Division
- 30 June 2020HB Koge 2–1 Vejle1. Division
- 1 March 2020Vejle 1–0 HB Koge1. Division
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vejle a 19.2% chance of the title and HB Koge 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vejle the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Vejle against 1.05 for HB Koge. Vejle's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.2 for HB Koge.
How the model reaches 58% for Vejle to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vejle to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Vejle's ratings add 6 points and HB Koge's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Vejle's ratings51%+6
- HB Koge's ratings58%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Vejle at home · HB Koge away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Vejle 14, HB Koge 14.
Vejle score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); HB Koge have let in 2 there.
HB Koge score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Vejle have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Vejle
- at AB Copenhagen27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- vs Hobro6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 61%
- at Hvidovre20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs Aalborg27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 57%
- at Esbjerg6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 40%
HB Koge
- vs Aarhus Fremad28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 39%
- at Hillerød5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs Vendsyssel FF20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 51%
- at AB Copenhagen27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 20%
- vs FC Fredericia6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.