11 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Lyon vs Sparta Praha UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Lyon 3-0 Sparta Praha.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Lyon, 20% draw, 15% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Sparta Praha 2–1 Lyon (4 Aug) →

Lyon went through 4–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Lyon at 65%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lyon99%Draw1%Sparta Praha0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Nuamah
20'
34'
Adam Ševinský
37'
🔁A. Irvingout: J. Zeleny
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
54'
63'
🔁R. Macekout: S. Eneme
63'
🔁J. Brunesout: E. Singhateh
⚽A. Maitland-Nilesassist: C. Tolisso
66'
⚽T. Morton
72'
73'
🔁A. Karabecout: H. Sochurek
74'
🔁J. Mercadoout: V. Vitalyos
🔁A. Maitland-Nilesout: C. Mata
76'
🔁E. Nuamahout: K. Boudache
76'
🔁M. Fofanaout: J. Duranville
85'
🔁Abner Viniciusout: M. Ouedraogo
85'
🔁C. Tolissoout: N. Nartey
88'
89'
Matěj Ryneš

Match stats — Lyon vs Sparta Praha

56%Possession44%
19Shots6
11On target1
7Corners1

Line-ups

Lyon 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 98A. Maitland-NilesD
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 19M. NiakhateD
  • 16Abner ViniciusD
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 7E. NuamahM
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 11M. FofanaM
  • 17L. OpendaF
Substitutes
  • 25J. BenguiG
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 22C. MataD
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 45R. HimbertF
  • 24J. DuranvilleF
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 39M. de CarvalhoM
  • 76M. OuedraogoD
Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44J. SurovcikG
  • 2M. SuchomelD
  • 19A. SevinskyD
  • 25A. SorensenD
  • 11M. RynesD
  • 28R. MacekM
  • 18A. IrvingM
  • 17J. MercadoM
  • 10A. KarabecM
  • 7J. AlcocerM
  • 14J. BrunesF
Substitutes
  • 47K. HegyiG
  • 54L. FrancG
  • 3P. KaderabekD
  • 5S. EnemeM
  • 29M. VojtaF
  • 24D. HollyM
  • 36G. KuolM
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 30J. ZelenyD
Coach: Brian Priske

Form going into Lyon vs Sparta Praha

Lyon

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Sparta Praha4 August 2026

Sparta Praha

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav8 August 2026
  • W2-1Lyon4 August 2026
  • W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
  • L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Sparta Praha conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sparta Praha scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Sparta Praha had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lyon vs Sparta Praha

  • 4 August 2026Sparta Praha 2–1 LyonUEFA Champions League
  • 4 November 2021Lyon 3–0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League
  • 21 October 2021Sparta Praha 3–4 LyonUEFA Europa League

The result against the call

Lyon beat Sparta Praha 3–0. The model had made a win for Lyon its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: E. Nuamah 20' for Lyon, A. Maitland-Niles 66' for Lyon, T. Morton 72' for Lyon. Sent off: Adam Ševinský (Sparta Praha) 34'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.