Lyon
vs
Sparta Praha
The model makes it 55% Lyon, 23% draw, 22% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lyon 2.00, Sparta Praha 1.21.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lyon
No earlier matches on record this season.
Sparta Praha
- W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
- L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Lyon has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Sparta Praha
- 4 August 2026Sparta Praha 2–1 LyonUEFA Champions League
- 4 November 2021Lyon 3–0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League
- 21 October 2021Sparta Praha 3–4 LyonUEFA Europa League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lyon carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.81 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Lyon L; Sparta Praha L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Lyon and 1.21 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lyon rate 1.09 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 0.89 and 0.97.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 241 correct results out of 502 settled predictions (48%), with 50 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for Lyon against 1.21 for Sparta Praha. Lyon's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.97 for Sparta Praha.