Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Slavia Sofia 1-1 Lokomotiv Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Slavia Sofia, 28% draw, 45% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 99Ivan AndonovG
- 87Diego FerraressoD
- 4Nikola SavićD
- 5David MalembanaD
- 26Dimitar BurovM
- 73Ivan MinchevM
- 6Boris TodorovM
- 77Emil StoevM
- 13Iliyan StefanovM
- 27Umaro BaldéF
- 88Vladimir NikolovF
- 11Mouhamed DossoM
- 7Roberto RaychevM
- 63Levi NtumbaG
- 3Martin GeorgievD
- 24Lazar MarinD
- 20Jordan Semedo VarelaD
- 71Kristiyan StoyanovM
- 23Ilian AntonovF
- 9Yoan BornosuzovF
- 99Martin VelichkovG
- 22Reyan DaskalovD
- 44Bozhidar KatsarovD
- 91Ryan BidoungaD
- 14Angel LyaskovD
- 31Krasimir StanoevM
- 5Erol DostM
- 71Nikolas PenevM
- 20Dimitar KostadinovM
- 7Spas DelevM
- 10Georgi MinchevF
- 17Mark Emilio PapazovM
- 24Aleksandar LyubenovG
- 6EirôD
- 19Mitko MitkovD
- 21Kristian ChachevM
- 16Mohamed MedfaiM
- 26Krasimir MiloshevM
- 11Adil TaouiM
- 77Caue Caruzo AlvesF
Form going into Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Slavia Sofia
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Arda Kardzhali24 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia20 July 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
- 18 May 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 2–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 13 March 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 3 October 2025Slavia Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 10 May 2025Slavia Sofia 0–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 6 April 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 3–2 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 24 October 2024Slavia Sofia 3–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: Slavia Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia
Slavia Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Lokomotiv Sofia
GoalsAssists
- S. Delev11
- D. Kostadinov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slavia Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv Sofia at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: N. Penev 36' for Lokomotiv Sofia, I. Minchev 42' for Slavia Sofia.