First League · Regular Season - 3 · 31 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia

The model makes it 28% Slavia Sofia, 28% draw, 44% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 1.06, Lokomotiv Sofia 1.39.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

50%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%0-1 11%0-0 9%

Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia

  • 18 May 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 2–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 13 March 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 3 October 2025Slavia Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 10 May 2025Slavia Sofia 0–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 6 April 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 3–2 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 24 October 2024Slavia Sofia 3–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lokomotiv Sofia the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Slavia Sofia against 1.39 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Slavia Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.31/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.81 for Lokomotiv Sofia.