31 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result

Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Slavia Sofia 1-1 Lokomotiv Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Slavia Sofia, 28% draw, 45% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slavia Sofia3%Draw93%Lokomotiv Sofia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

B. Todorov
15'
36'
⚽N. Penev
⚽I. Minchevassist: I. Stefanov
42'
🔁B. Todorovout: M. Dosso
46'
47'
A. Lyaskov
59'
🔁N. Penevout: M. Papazov
E. Stoev
60'
I. Minchev
60'
M. Dosso
66'
🔁E. Stoevout: R. Raychev
66'
•R. Raychev
68'
74'
🔁B. Katsarovout: Eiro
🔁I. Minchevout: K. Stoyanov
77'
🔁U. Baldeout: I. Antonov
90+2'
🔁I. Stefanovout: Y. Guermouche
90+2'

Line-ups

Slavia Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 99Ivan AndonovG
  • 87Diego FerraressoD
  • 4Nikola SavićD
  • 5David MalembanaD
  • 26Dimitar BurovM
  • 73Ivan MinchevM
  • 6Boris TodorovM
  • 77Emil StoevM
  • 13Iliyan StefanovM
  • 27Umaro BaldéF
  • 88Vladimir NikolovF
Substitutes
  • 11Mouhamed DossoM
  • 7Roberto RaychevM
  • 63Levi NtumbaG
  • 3Martin GeorgievD
  • 24Lazar MarinD
  • 20Jordan Semedo VarelaD
  • 71Kristiyan StoyanovM
  • 23Ilian AntonovF
  • 9Yoan BornosuzovF
Coach: Ratko Dostanic
Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 99Martin VelichkovG
  • 22Reyan DaskalovD
  • 44Bozhidar KatsarovD
  • 91Ryan BidoungaD
  • 14Angel LyaskovD
  • 31Krasimir StanoevM
  • 5Erol DostM
  • 71Nikolas PenevM
  • 20Dimitar KostadinovM
  • 7Spas DelevM
  • 10Georgi MinchevF
Substitutes
  • 17Mark Emilio PapazovM
  • 24Aleksandar LyubenovG
  • 6EirôD
  • 19Mitko MitkovD
  • 21Kristian ChachevM
  • 16Mohamed MedfaiM
  • 26Krasimir MiloshevM
  • 11Adil TaouiM
  • 77Caue Caruzo AlvesF
Coach: Lyuboslav Penev

Form going into Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Slavia Sofia

  • L0-1away to Arda Kardzhali24 July 2026
  • D0-0CSKA Sofia20 July 2026

Lokomotiv Sofia

  • L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv20 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Slavia Sofia925286+211
13Lokomotiv Sofia80441016-64

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia

  • 18 May 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 2–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 13 March 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 3 October 2025Slavia Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 10 May 2025Slavia Sofia 0–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 6 April 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 3–2 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 24 October 2024Slavia Sofia 3–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.