First League · Regular Season - 3 · 1 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia

Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia

The model makes it 64% Levski Sofia, 20% draw, 16% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).

Expected goals: Levski Sofia 2.20, Septemvri Sofia 1.00.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

57%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 10%2-1 10%1-1 9%

Head-to-head: Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia

  • 30 November 2025Levski Sofia 7–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
  • 27 July 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
  • 21 April 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–1 Levski SofiaFirst League
  • 9 November 2024Levski Sofia 2–3 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
  • 29 June 2024Levski Sofia 5–0 Septemvri SofiaFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 May 2023Levski Sofia 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 1 for Septemvri Sofia. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.49 for Septemvri Sofia.