31 July 2026, 18:30 UTC

Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Motor Lublin 1-2 Jagiellonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Motor Lublin, 21% draw, 38% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.44, 4.76 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Motor Lublin at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motor Lublin0%Draw6%Jagiellonia94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
⚽N. Prelec
40'
Guilherme Montóia
62'
🔁R. Conceicaoout: J. Agbonifo
68'
🔁J. Imazout: A. Klynge
68'
🔁N. Prelecout: D. Rallis
🔁T. Santosout: M. Aiko
79'
🔁M. Legowskiout: P. Meyer
79'
82'
Bernardo Vital
⚽K. Czubakassist: M. Ndiaye
82'
85'
⚽S. Lozanoassist: K. Szmyt
🔁Y. Bourhaneout: T. Plavotic
86'
🔁Kikisout: F. Haxha
87'
87'
🔁S. Lozanoout: A. Konstantopoulos
87'
🔁K. Szmytout: K. Jozwiak
90+2'
Kamil Jóźwiak

Match stats — Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

46%Possession54%
21Shots13
7On target4
4Corners2
2.02xG0.89

Goals against chances

Motor Lublin1 from 2.02 xGless than the chances were worth
Jagiellonia2 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1
  • 71M. PopaG
  • 29T. SantosD
  • 18B. BereszynskiD
  • 39M. BartosD
  • 24F. LubereckiD
  • 27Y. BourhaneM
  • 30M. NdiayeM
  • 8KikisM
  • 6M. LegowskiM
  • 11Fabio RonaldoM
  • 10K. CzubakF
Substitutes
  • 33G. TratnikG
  • 4T. PlavoticD
  • 70M. AikoM
  • 2P. MeyerD
  • 20K. PlichtaF
  • 5A. AkatovD
  • 16F. LewandowskiM
  • 23F. HaxhaM
  • 22M. ZlomanczukM
Coach: Mariusz Misiura
Jagiellonia 4-4-2
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 15N. WojtuszekD
  • 5B. VitalD
  • 4Y. KobayashiD
  • 23G. MontoiaD
  • 27R. ConceicaoM
  • 6T. RomanczukM
  • 21S. LozanoM
  • 7K. SzmytM
  • 11J. ImazF
  • 99N. PrelecF
Substitutes
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 2C. PolakD
  • 85E. KozlowskiM
  • 9D. RallisF
  • 80Z. ZalewskiM
  • 72K. JozwiakM
  • 17Y. SyllaF
Coach: Adrian Siemieniec

Form going into Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

Motor Lublin

  • D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026

Jagiellonia

  • W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Motor Lublin8125915-65
9Jagiellonia74031110+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

  • 7 February 2026Jagiellonia 4–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 14 December 2025Motor Lublin 1–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 16 February 2025Jagiellonia 3–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 25 September 2024Motor Lublin 0–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 17 January 2024Jagiellonia 0–0 Motor LublinFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 July 2023Motor Lublin 1–1 JagielloniaFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia

Motor Lublin

  • K. Czubak5 goals

Jagiellonia

  • N. Prelec3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.