Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 2 · 31 July 2026, 18:30 UTC

Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin

The model makes it 43% Motor Lublin, 21% draw, 36% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.33, 4.76 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).

Expected goals: Motor Lublin 2.14, Jagiellonia 1.98.

Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

76%
Both teams to score
78%
Over 2.5 goals
22%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 7%2-2 7%1-1 7%

Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

  • 7 February 2026Jagiellonia 4–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 14 December 2025Motor Lublin 1–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 16 February 2025Jagiellonia 3–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 25 September 2024Motor Lublin 0–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 17 January 2024Jagiellonia 0–0 Motor LublinFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 July 2023Motor Lublin 1–1 JagielloniaFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Motor Lublin the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Motor Lublin against 1.98 for Jagiellonia. Motor Lublin's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.51 for Jagiellonia.