1 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result

Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Botev Plovdiv 1-0 Cherno More Varna.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Botev Plovdiv, 19% draw, 25% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 1.79, 5.26 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Botev Plovdiv at 56% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Botev Plovdiv95%Draw5%Cherno More Varna0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

I. Videv
15'
⚽A. Chandarov (pen)
23'
🔁C. Algarraout: M. Rodrigues
24'
35'
A. Kolev
🔁I. Videvout: N. Soldo
46'
58'
D. Teles
60'
🔁M. Barandasout: N. Zlatev
🔁O. M. Chideraout: Mascote
61'
62'
C. Sidney
M. Rodrigues
64'
72'
🔁E. Nyagolovout: V. Kerchev
72'
🔁V. Panayotovout: I. Bounaas
72'
🔁C. Sidneyout: G. Lazarov
76'
🔁M. Achiout: P. Andreev
🔁C. Meottiout: N. Iliev
83'
V. Mendes
90+2'

Line-ups

Botev Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 29Daniel NaumovG
  • 82Vladimir MendesD
  • 87Simeon PetrovD
  • 6Ivaylo VidevD
  • 27Bryan-Anthony Chibuike HeinD
  • 14Carlos Algarra LópezM
  • 77Lucas AraujoM
  • 66Carlos MeottiM
  • 10Asen ChandarovM
  • 90Samuel KaluM
  • 9Chidera Micheal OkohF
Substitutes
  • 19Mauro RodriguesM
  • 4Nikola SoldoD
  • 30Franklin MascoteF
  • 7Nikola IlievM
  • 21Nikolay PrandzhevG
  • 15Bogdan KostovD
  • 22Marvin SengerD
  • 16Veliyan VidolovM
  • 23Dimitar TonevM
Coach: Stanislav Genchev
Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 81Kristian TomovG
  • 50Ertan TombakD
  • 3Zhivko AtanasovD
  • 5Luciano SquadroneD
  • 10Celso SidneyF
  • 71Vasil PanayotovM
  • 24David TelesM
  • 7Miguel BarandasF
  • 11Mohamed AchiM
  • 13Emanuil NyagolovD
  • 20Aleksandar KolevF
Substitutes
  • 39Nikolay ZlatevM
  • 37Ventsislav KerchevD
  • 19Georgi LazarovF
  • 18Petar AndreevM
  • 70Antoan ManasievG
  • 26João BandaroD
  • 93Georgi VentsislavovD
  • 29Berk BeyhanM
  • 14Aleksandar TodorovM
Coach: Ilian Iliev

Form going into Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

Botev Plovdiv

  • L2-3away to CSKA Sofia27 July 2026
  • D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 July 2026

Cherno More Varna

  • L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Botev Plovdiv94141314-113
12Cherno More Varna91261019-95

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

  • 1 August 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 16 May 2026Botev Plovdiv 5–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 9 May 2026Cherno More Varna 2–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 29 November 2025Botev Plovdiv 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 27 July 2025Cherno More Varna 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 5 April 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.