First League · Regular Season - 3 · 1 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

The model makes it 56% Botev Plovdiv, 19% draw, 25% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 1.79, 5.26 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).

Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 2.58, Cherno More Varna 1.75.

Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

77%
Both teams to score
81%
Over 2.5 goals
19%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 8%2-2 7%3-1 7%

Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

  • 16 May 2026Botev Plovdiv 5–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 9 May 2026Cherno More Varna 2–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 29 November 2025Botev Plovdiv 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 27 July 2025Cherno More Varna 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 5 April 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 25 October 2024Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Botev Plovdiv the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Botev Plovdiv against 1.75 for Cherno More Varna. Botev Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.67/2.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.04 for Cherno More Varna.