Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: Botev Plovdiv 1-0 Cherno More Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Botev Plovdiv, 19% draw, 25% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 1.79, 5.26 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Plovdiv at 56% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 29Daniel NaumovG
- 82Vladimir MendesD
- 87Simeon PetrovD
- 6Ivaylo VidevD
- 27Bryan-Anthony Chibuike HeinD
- 14Carlos Algarra LópezM
- 77Lucas AraujoM
- 66Carlos MeottiM
- 10Asen ChandarovM
- 90Samuel KaluM
- 9Chidera Micheal OkohF
- 19Mauro RodriguesM
- 4Nikola SoldoD
- 30Franklin MascoteF
- 7Nikola IlievM
- 21Nikolay PrandzhevG
- 15Bogdan KostovD
- 22Marvin SengerD
- 16Veliyan VidolovM
- 23Dimitar TonevM
- 81Kristian TomovG
- 50Ertan TombakD
- 3Zhivko AtanasovD
- 5Luciano SquadroneD
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 71Vasil PanayotovM
- 24David TelesM
- 7Miguel BarandasF
- 11Mohamed AchiM
- 13Emanuil NyagolovD
- 20Aleksandar KolevF
- 39Nikolay ZlatevM
- 37Ventsislav KerchevD
- 19Georgi LazarovF
- 18Petar AndreevM
- 70Antoan ManasievG
- 26João BandaroD
- 93Georgi VentsislavovD
- 29Berk BeyhanM
- 14Aleksandar TodorovM
Form going into Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna
Botev Plovdiv
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to CSKA Sofia27 July 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 July 2026
Cherno More Varna
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna
- 16 May 2026Botev Plovdiv 5–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 9 May 2026Cherno More Varna 2–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 29 November 2025Botev Plovdiv 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 27 July 2025Cherno More Varna 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 5 April 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
Leading scorers: Botev Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna
Botev Plovdiv
GoalsAssists
- C. Meotti10
Cherno More Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botev Plovdiv beat Cherno More Varna 1–0. The model had made a win for Botev Plovdiv its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: A. Chandarov (penalty) 23' for Botev Plovdiv.