31 July 2026, 18:15 UTC

CSKA 1948 vs Arda Kardzhali First League prediction & result

Bistritsa Stadium, Sofia
Full time2 1

Final score: CSKA 1948 2-1 Arda Kardzhali.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% CSKA 1948, 20% draw, 21% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 1.69, 5.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CSKA 1948 at 59% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA 194895%Draw5%Arda Kardzhali0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Dialloassist: G. Rusev
6'
22'
B. Karagaren
🔁B. Tsonevout: Frederic
46'
🔁D. Tarasenkoout: E. Franco
46'
K. Iliev
50'
M. Dialloassist: D. Grivic
57'
🔁M. Dialloout: A. Iliev
58'
🔁F. Krebsout: J. Meyer
58'
63'
🔁A. Vutovout: D. Yankov
A. Hoffmann
67'
🔁G. Rusevout: E. Parkhomenko
68'
74'
🔁D. Idowuout: A. Kabov
78'
🔁P. Bachevout: G. Nikolov
90+6'
G. Nikolov

Line-ups

CSKA 1948 4-2-3-1
  • 1Petar MarinovG
  • 96Dragan GrivićD
  • 4Andre HoffmannD
  • 70Kostadin IlievD
  • 15Fourat SoltaniD
  • 23Florian KrebsM
  • 34Petar VitanovM
  • 71Danylo TarasenkoF
  • 11Georgi RusevM
  • 10Borislav TsonevM
  • 93Mamadou DialloF
Substitutes
  • 76Elias FrancoM
  • 67Frédéric MacielM
  • 30Jules MeyerM
  • 9Atanas IlievF
  • 6Egor ParkhomenkoD
  • 13Dimitar SheytanovG
  • 19Marto BoychevM
  • 33Héctor CuellarM
  • 20Brian SobreroM
Coach: Yuriy Vasev
Arda Kardzhali 4-2-3-1
  • 1Anatoli GospodinovG
  • 21Vyacheslav VelevD
  • 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
  • 5Viktor LyubenovD
  • 35Dimitar VelkovskiD
  • 80Lachezar KotevM
  • 4Idowu David AkintolaM
  • 10Svetoslav KovachevM
  • 39Antonio VutovM
  • 99Birsent KaragarenM
  • 16Preslav BachevF
Substitutes
  • 8Dominik YankovM
  • 11Atanas KabovM
  • 9Georgi NikolovF
  • 22Yanko GeorgievG
  • 24Martin PaskalevD
  • 6Viktor PopovD
  • 18Simeon VasilevD
  • 26Burak AkandzhaM
Coach: Blagov Tunchev Aleksander

Form going into CSKA 1948 vs Arda Kardzhali

CSKA 1948

  • D0-0Spartak Trnava28 July 2026
  • W2-1Botev Vratsa25 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Spartak Trnava22 July 2026
  • D2-2away to Spartak Varna17 July 2026

Arda Kardzhali

  • W1-0Slavia Sofia24 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Septemvri Sofia18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4CSKA 19489612179+819
5Arda Kardzhali95131411+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs Arda Kardzhali

  • 22 November 2025Arda Kardzhali 3–0 CSKA 1948First League
  • 18 July 2025CSKA 1948 1–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 3 March 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–0 CSKA 1948First League
  • 21 October 2024CSKA 1948 1–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 20 May 2024Arda Kardzhali 0–0 CSKA 1948First League
  • 29 April 2024CSKA 1948 1–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League

Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and Arda Kardzhali

CSKA 1948

  • Frédéric Maciel1 goals

Arda Kardzhali

No player in First League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.