CSKA Sofia vs Dunav Ruse First League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Sofia 2-1 Dunav Ruse.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% CSKA Sofia, 25% draw, 17% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 58% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 21Fedor LapoukhovG
- 32Facundo RodríguezD
- 14Teodor IvanovD
- 19Andrey YordanovD
- 6Bruno JordãoM
- 11Mohamed Amine BrahimiM
- 99James Eto'oM
- 30Petko PanayotovM
- 38Léo PereiraM
- 77Alejandro PiedrahitaM
- 10Joël ZwartsF
- 5Jean-Philippe GbaminD
- 8Stefano SensiM
- 28Ioannis PittasF
- 2PastorD
- 34Vasil KaymakanovM
- 25Dimitar EvtimovG
- 17Ángelo MartinoD
- 15Aleks TunchevD
- 7Max EbongM
- 33Teodor KanevG
- 39Andre AlvesD
- 5Kyriakos AntoniouM
- 4Jose CabarcasD
- 88Dimitar TodorovD
- 44Vladan VidakovićM
- 2Mario Ivanov DilchovskiD
- 14Radoslav ApostolovM
- 10Kristiyan BoychevM
- 11Denislav MinchevF
- 9Alexander ValinoF
- 24Stefan GavrilovM
- 18Ibrahim KeitaF
- 51Ilker BudinovD
- 69Plamen PepelyashevG
- 6Stanislav YovkovD
- 22Stojan PredevD
- 19Stefan StefanovM
- 77Aleksandar SimeonovF
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
CSKA Sofia
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Qarabag30 July 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Qarabag23 July 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026
Dunav Ruse
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
- L1-2away to Levski Sofia17 July 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- CSKA Sofia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- CSKA Sofia failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 30 |
| 9 | Dunav Ruse | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
- 31 January 2026CSKA Sofia 3–1 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 14 December 2019CSKA Sofia 4–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 25 August 2019Dunav Ruse 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 24 November 2018Dunav Ruse 0–2 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 5 August 2018CSKA Sofia 3–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
Leading scorers: CSKA Sofia and Dunav Ruse
CSKA Sofia
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Jordão20
- I. Pittas10
Dunav Ruse
GoalsAssists
- I. Budinov11
- Andre Alves10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CSKA Sofia beat Dunav Ruse 2–1. The model had made a win for CSKA Sofia its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: R. Apostolov 10' for Dunav Ruse, J. Zwarts 17' for CSKA Sofia, F. Rodriguez 79' for CSKA Sofia.