2 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

CSKA Sofia vs Dunav Ruse First League prediction & result

National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Full time2 – 1

Final score: CSKA Sofia 2-1 Dunav Ruse.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% CSKA Sofia, 25% draw, 17% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CSKA Sofia at 58% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA Sofia98%Draw2%Dunav Ruse0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽R. Apostolovassist: V. Vidakovic
⚽J. Zwartsassist: M. Brahimi
17'
A. Piedrahita
31'
🔁T. Ivanovout: J. Gbamin
46'
🔁B. Jordaoout: S. Sensi
46'
🔁A. Piedrahitaout: I. Pittas
46'
62'
V. Vidakovic
🔁Leo Pereiraout: V. Kaymakanov
65'
🔁M. Brahimiout: Pastor
65'
75'
🔁K. Boychevout: S. Gavrilov
⚽F. Rodriguez
79'
80'
🔁A. Valinoout: I. Keita
80'
🔁D. Todorovout: S. Predev
84'
🔁M. Dilchovskiout: I. Budinov
V. Kaymakanov
90+2'
I. Pittas
90+3'

Line-ups

CSKA Sofia 3-1-4-2
  • 21Fedor LapoukhovG
  • 32Facundo RodríguezD
  • 14Teodor IvanovD
  • 19Andrey YordanovD
  • 6Bruno JordãoM
  • 11Mohamed Amine BrahimiM
  • 99James Eto'oM
  • 30Petko PanayotovM
  • 38Léo PereiraM
  • 77Alejandro PiedrahitaM
  • 10Joël ZwartsF
Substitutes
  • 5Jean-Philippe GbaminD
  • 8Stefano SensiM
  • 28Ioannis PittasF
  • 2PastorD
  • 34Vasil KaymakanovM
  • 25Dimitar EvtimovG
  • 17Ángelo MartinoD
  • 15Aleks TunchevD
  • 7Max EbongM
Coach: Hristo Yanev
Dunav Ruse 4-1-4-1
  • 33Teodor KanevG
  • 39Andre AlvesD
  • 5Kyriakos AntoniouM
  • 4Jose CabarcasD
  • 88Dimitar TodorovD
  • 44Vladan VidakovićM
  • 2Mario Ivanov DilchovskiD
  • 14Radoslav ApostolovM
  • 10Kristiyan BoychevM
  • 11Denislav MinchevF
  • 9Alexander ValinoF
Substitutes
  • 24Stefan GavrilovM
  • 18Ibrahim KeitaF
  • 51Ilker BudinovD
  • 69Plamen PepelyashevG
  • 6Stanislav YovkovD
  • 22Stojan PredevD
  • 19Stefan StefanovM
  • 77Aleksandar SimeonovF
Coach: Emanuel Lukanov

Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Dunav Ruse

CSKA Sofia

  • D0-0Qarabag30 July 2026
  • W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Qarabag23 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026

Dunav Ruse

  • L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Levski Sofia17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3CSKA Sofia8620216+1520
14Dunav Ruse9117817-94

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Dunav Ruse

  • 2 August 2026CSKA Sofia 2–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
  • 31 January 2026CSKA Sofia 3–1 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 December 2019CSKA Sofia 4–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
  • 25 August 2019Dunav Ruse 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 24 November 2018Dunav Ruse 0–2 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 5 August 2018CSKA Sofia 3–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.