Regular Season - 16 · 29 November 2026, 12:00 UTC

Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction

Eden Arena, Prague

Our model says: Slavia Praha 2–0 Baník Ostrava

The model makes it 77% Slavia Praha, 16% draw, 7% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 1.30, 6.25 and 14.29.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Slavia Praha 2.80, Baník Ostrava 0.59.

Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Slavia Praha are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Slavia Praha's rating is built from 48 Czech Liga matches and Baník Ostrava's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.

Key facts

Slavia Praha are top on 34 points from 14 games; Baník Ostrava are 13th on 14 points from 13 games — Czech Liga.
Slavia Praha are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Artis.
Baník Ostrava have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Zbrojovka Brno.
Last 6 meetings: Slavia Praha 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Baník Ostrava 0–4 Slavia Praha.

More Czech Liga predictions

All Czech Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava

42%

Both teams to score

66%

Over 2.5 goals

34%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Slavia Praha win Draw Baník Ostrava win

2–013%
3–012%
1–09%
4–09%
2–18%
3–17%
1–16%

Scores read Slavia Praha first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Slavia Praha at 77%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava

Slavia Praha

Czech Liga

W4-1Artis8 November 2026
W5-0away to FK Jablonec31 October 2026
D1-1Mlada Boleslav24 October 2026
D0-0Hradec Králové17 October 2026
W1-0away to Zlin9 October 2026

Baník Ostrava

Czech Liga

W3-1away to Zbrojovka Brno7 November 2026
L0-4Plzen1 November 2026
D0-0Sparta Praha18 October 2026
L0-1away to Bohemians 190510 October 2026
D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026

What these results say

Slavia Praha went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Slavia Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Baník Ostrava failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Baník Ostrava conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Slavia Praha	14	10	4	0	36	8	+28	34
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	10	23	-13	14

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Slavia Praha

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 96% today

Win 97%

Draw 94%

Defeat 92%

Baník Ostrava

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today

Win 13%

Draw 25%

Defeat 29%

From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava

1 August 2026Baník Ostrava 0–4 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
5 April 2026Baník Ostrava 0–2 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
1 November 2025Slavia Praha 2–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
24 May 2025Slavia Praha 3–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
16 February 2025Slavia Praha 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
5 December 2024Baník Ostrava 0–1 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava

Slavia Praha

GoalsAssists

M. Chytil61
E. Ayaosi53
W. Nowak51

Baník Ostrava

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slavia Praha a 95.8% chance of the title and Baník Ostrava 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Slavia Praha Baník Ostrava

1.35 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.65

0.71 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.37

2.80 Model expected goals (this match) 0.59

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Slavia Praha against 0.59 for Baník Ostrava. Slavia Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.35/0.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.37 for Baník Ostrava.

Slavia Praha carry a model rating of 7.17 against 6.48 for Baník Ostrava.

How the model reaches 77% for Slavia Praha to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slavia Praha to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Slavia Praha's ratings add 19 points and Baník Ostrava's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 77%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage41%+5
Both sides at this match's level40%−1
Slavia Praha's ratings59%+19
Baník Ostrava's ratings77%+18

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Slavia PrahaModelBaník Ostrava

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

85%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

66%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

44%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

42%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Slavia PrahaBaník Ostrava

14Matches13

10W 4D 0LRecord4W 2D 7L

36 2.6 per gameGoals scored10 0.8 per game

8 0.6 per gameGoals conceded23 1.8 per game

7 of 14Clean sheets4 of 13

1 of 14Failed to score6 of 13

3 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1

23 1.6 per gameYellow cards22 1.7 per game

2Red cards3

3-4-2-1 9×Usual shape3-4-2-1 6×

Slavia Praha at home · Baník Ostrava away

8Played7

5W 3D 0LRecord2W 1D 4L

20–7Goals for – against7–13

2 of 8Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Czech Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Slavia PrahaBaník Ostrava

Slavia Praha are 1st after 14 Czech Liga matches (between 1st and 1st so far); Baník Ostrava are 13th after 13 (between 3rd and 13th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Czech Liga matches this season: Slavia Praha 14, Baník Ostrava 13.

Slavia Praha scored 644578

Baník Ostrava conceded 342922

Slavia Praha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Baník Ostrava have let in 2 there.

Baník Ostrava scored 130312

Slavia Praha conceded 210123

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Slavia Praha

at Pardubice4 Dec · Czech Ligawin 59%
at Bayern München8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 21%
vs Slovan Liberec13 Dec · Czech Ligawin 59%

Baník Ostrava

vs Hradec Králové6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 29%
at Artis12 Dec · Czech Ligawin 36%
vs FK Jablonec30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.