Slavia Praha
vs
Arsenal
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Slavia Praha 1–2 Arsenal
The model makes it 35% Slavia Praha, 28% draw, 37% Arsenal — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Slavia Praha 1.36, Arsenal 1.41.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 930 settled matches.
A tight game: Slavia Praha and Arsenal are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Slavia Praha's rating is built from 45 Czech Liga matches and Arsenal's from 45 Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 695 matches.
Key facts
- Slavia Praha are 30th on 1 point from 3 games; Arsenal are 8th on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Slavia Praha have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Fenerbahçe.
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Nottingham Forest.
- Last 3 meetings: Arsenal 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 November 2025, ended Slavia Praha 0–3 Arsenal.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slavia Praha vs Arsenal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 37% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 3,397 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Slavia Praha vs Arsenal
Slavia Praha
- D2-2away to Fenerbahçe20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Sabah FA13 October 2026
- L2-3Lens10 September 2026
Arsenal
- W3-0Lille13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Arsenal
- 4 November 2025Slavia Praha 0–3 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- 15 April 2021Slavia Praha 0–4 ArsenalUEFA Europa League
- 8 April 2021Arsenal 1–1 Slavia PrahaUEFA Europa League
The two sides
Slavia Praha carry a model rating of 7.15 against 7.34 for Arsenal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Slavia Praha and 1.41 for Arsenal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Praha rate 1.31 in attack and 0.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arsenal rate 1.39 and 0.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Slavia Praha against 1.41 for Arsenal. Slavia Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.31/0.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.39/0.53 for Arsenal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slavia Praha at home · Arsenal away
League matches only, this season — Slavia Praha in the Czech Liga, Arsenal in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Slavia Praha 11 in the Czech Liga, Arsenal 7 in the Premier League.
Slavia Praha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Arsenal have let in 0 there.
Arsenal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Slavia Praha have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Slavia Praha
- vs Artis8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 82%
- at Sigma Olomouc21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 56%
- vs Villarreal25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 55%
Arsenal
- vs Hull City7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 61%
- at Newcastle21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.