Lens
vs
Como
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Lens 1–2 Como
The model makes it 36% Lens, 25% draw, 39% Como — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lens 1.66, Como 1.77.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 930 settled matches.
A tight game: Lens and Como are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Lens's rating is built from 41 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Como's from 45 Serie A matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 695 matches.
Key facts
- Lens are 21st on 3 points from 2 games; Como are 17th on 3 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Lens have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Estac Troyes.
- Como have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Fiorentina.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lens vs Como
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Como at 39% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 3,397 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lens vs Como
Lens
- L0-2Sporting CP13 October 2026
- W3-2away to Slavia Praha10 September 2026
Como
- L2-3away to Feyenoord14 October 2026
- W4-1RB Leipzig10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Como | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Lens carry a model rating of 6.94 against 7.13 for Como. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Lens and 1.77 for Como. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lens rate 1.18 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Como rate 1.27 and 0.72.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Como the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lens against 1.77 for Como. Lens's attack/defence rating is 1.18/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/0.72 for Como.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lens at home · Como away
League matches only, this season — Lens in the Ligue 1, Como in the Serie A. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lens 7 in the Ligue 1, Como 7 in the Serie A.
Lens score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Como have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Lens
- vs Marseille8 Nov · Ligue 1win 42%
- vs Toulouse21 Nov · Ligue 1win 50%
Como
- at Inter8 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.