FC Porto
vs
Napoli
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: FC Porto 2–0 Napoli
The model makes it 55% FC Porto, 25% draw, 20% Napoli — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: FC Porto 1.97, Napoli 0.99.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,420 settled matches.
Edge to FC Porto: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. FC Porto's rating is built from 42 Primeira Liga matches and Napoli's from 45 Serie A matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 695 matches.
Key facts
- FC Porto are 33rd on 0 points from 3 games; Napoli are 22nd on 3 points from 3 games — UEFA Champions League.
- FC Porto have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- Napoli have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to Bodo/Glimt.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Porto vs Napoli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 55% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 1,073 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Porto vs Napoli
FC Porto
- L0-1PSV Eindhoven20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Real Betis14 October 2026
- L0-2Manchester City8 September 2026
Napoli
- W4-3Bodo/Glimt20 October 2026
- L1-3away to Villarreal13 October 2026
- L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
FC Porto carry a model rating of 7.3 against 7.12 for Napoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for FC Porto and 0.99 for Napoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Porto rate 1.44 in attack and 0.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Napoli rate 1.20 and 0.70.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Napoli, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for FC Porto against 0.99 for Napoli. FC Porto's attack/defence rating is 1.44/0.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.2/0.7 for Napoli.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Porto at home · Napoli away
League matches only, this season — FC Porto in the Primeira Liga, Napoli in the Serie A. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Porto 8 in the Primeira Liga, Napoli 7 in the Serie A.
FC Porto score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Napoli have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Porto
- at Vitória SC8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 63%
- at Feyenoord24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 41%
- vs Sporting CP29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 47%
Napoli
- vs Lazio8 Nov · Serie Awin 41%
- vs Torino21 Nov · Serie Awin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.