AEK Athens FC
vs
Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: AEK Athens FC 2–1 Real Madrid
The model makes it 39% AEK Athens FC, 26% draw, 35% Real Madrid — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 1.61, Real Madrid 1.52.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 930 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. AEK Athens FC's rating is built from 38 Greek Super League matches and Real Madrid's from 47 La Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 695 matches.
Key facts
- AEK Athens FC are 27th on 3 points from 3 games; Real Madrid are 9th on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- AEK Athens FC have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Manchester City.
- Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Sevilla.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Athens FC at 39% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 3,397 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid
AEK Athens FC
- L1-5away to Manchester City20 October 2026
- L1-3away to Shakhtar Donetsk14 October 2026
- W1-0Lask Linz8 September 2026
Real Madrid
- W4-3away to AS Roma14 October 2026
- W2-1Inter8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AEK Athens FC carry a model rating of 7.14 against 7.28 for Real Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.52 for Real Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEK Athens FC rate 1.23 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Madrid rate 1.57 and 0.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Real Madrid, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for AEK Athens FC against 1.52 for Real Madrid. AEK Athens FC's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.57/0.67 for Real Madrid.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often AEK Athens FC's most recent league matches and Real Madrid's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AEK Athens FC at home · Real Madrid away
League matches only, this season — AEK Athens FC in the Super League 1, Real Madrid in the La Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: AEK Athens FC 6 in the Super League 1, Real Madrid 9 in the La Liga.
AEK Athens FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Real Madrid have let in 1 there.
Real Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); AEK Athens FC have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
AEK Athens FC
- vs Levadiakos8 Nov · Super League 1win 76%
- at Kalamata21 Nov · Super League 1win 59%
Real Madrid
- at Valencia7 Nov · La Ligawin 57%
- vs Celta Vigo22 Nov · La Ligawin 63%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.