Inter
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Inter 3–1 Shakhtar Donetsk
The model makes it 71% Inter, 16% draw, 13% Shakhtar Donetsk — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Inter 3.23, Shakhtar Donetsk 1.19.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Inter are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Inter are 28th on 0 points from 2 games; Shakhtar Donetsk are 23rd on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Inter are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Parma.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Veres Rivne.
- Last 5 meetings: Inter 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 November 2021, ended Inter 2–0 Shakhtar Donetsk.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter at 71% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Inter
- L3-4Club Brugge KV13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Real Madrid8 September 2026
Shakhtar Donetsk
- D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Inter | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk
- 24 November 2021Inter 2–0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- 28 September 2021Shakhtar Donetsk 0–0 InterUEFA Champions League
- 9 December 2020Inter 0–0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- 27 October 2020Shakhtar Donetsk 0–0 InterUEFA Champions League
- 17 August 2020Inter 5–0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk
Inter
GoalsAssists
- Lautaro Martínez21
Shakhtar Donetsk
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Inter carry a model rating of 7.28 against 6.93 for Shakhtar Donetsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.23 goals for Inter and 1.19 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter rate 1.82 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shakhtar Donetsk rate 1.09 and 0.92.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shakhtar Donetsk, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.23 expected goals for Inter against 1.19 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Inter's attack/defence rating is 1.82/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.92 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
Season stats
Inter at home · Shakhtar Donetsk away
League matches only, this season — Inter in the Serie A, Shakhtar Donetsk in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Inter 6 in the Serie A, Shakhtar Donetsk 8 in the Premier League.
Inter score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Shakhtar Donetsk have let in 0 there.
Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Inter have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Inter
- vs Fiorentina25 Oct · Serie Awin 65%
- at Venezia28 Oct · Serie Awin 79%
- at AC Milan31 Oct · Serie Awin 43%
- at Feyenoord3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
Shakhtar Donetsk
- vs Zorya Luhansk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 75%
- at Obolon'-Brovar31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 75%
- vs Sporting CP3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.