Fenerbahçe
vs
Liverpool
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Fenerbahçe 2–1 Liverpool
The model makes it 48% Fenerbahçe, 23% draw, 29% Liverpool — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.24, Liverpool 1.66.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,028 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Fenerbahçe's rating is built from 42 Süper Lig matches and Liverpool's from 45 Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 695 matches.
Key facts
- Fenerbahçe are 28th on 2 points from 3 games; Liverpool are 2nd on 9 points from 3 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Fenerbahçe have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Slavia Praha.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 3 games (3 won), most recently a 4-3 win at home to Villarreal.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 48% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 2,030 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool
Fenerbahçe
- D2-2Slavia Praha20 October 2026
- L0-6away to Aston Villa14 October 2026
- D1-1AS Roma10 September 2026
Liverpool
- W4-3Villarreal20 October 2026
- W6-3away to Lask Linz14 October 2026
- W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Liverpool
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- Talisca40
- M. Greenwood32
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- B. Barcola30
- A. Mac Allister30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fenerbahçe carry a model rating of 7.06 against 7.07 for Liverpool. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.66 for Liverpool. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fenerbahçe rate 1.40 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Liverpool rate 1.27 and 0.82.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Liverpool, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 1.66 for Liverpool. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 1.4/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/0.82 for Liverpool.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Fenerbahçe's most recent league matches and Liverpool's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fenerbahçe at home · Liverpool away
League matches only, this season — Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig, Liverpool in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Fenerbahçe 8 in the Süper Lig, Liverpool 7 in the Premier League.
Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Liverpool have let in 1 there.
Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fenerbahçe
- at Çorum FK8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 50%
- at Kocaelispor21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 53%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 35%
Liverpool
- at Crystal Palace8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 53%
- vs Manchester United22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Club Brugge KV25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.