Bayern München
vs
Arsenal
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Bayern München 2–1 Arsenal
The model makes it 48% Bayern München, 25% draw, 27% Arsenal — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bayern München 1.90, Arsenal 1.32.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bayern München are 4th on 4 points from 2 games; Arsenal are 3rd on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to FC Augsburg.
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Leeds.
- Last 6 meetings: Arsenal 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 November 2025, ended Arsenal 3–1 Bayern München.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bayern München vs Arsenal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bayern München vs Arsenal
Bayern München
- D3-3away to Viking13 October 2026
- W5-0Bodo/Glimt10 September 2026
Arsenal
- W3-0Lille13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayern München vs Arsenal
- 26 November 2025Arsenal 3–1 Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
- 17 April 2024Bayern Munich 1–0 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- 9 April 2024Arsenal 2–2 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- 18 July 2019Arsenal 2–1 Bayern MunichInternational Champions Cup
- 19 July 2017Bayern Munich 1–1 ArsenalInternational Champions Cup
- 7 March 2017Arsenal 1–5 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Bayern München and Arsenal
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane31
- M. Olise21
Arsenal
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bayern München carry a model rating of 7.33 against 7.32 for Arsenal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Bayern München and 1.32 for Arsenal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bayern München rate 1.76 in attack and 0.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arsenal rate 1.40 and 0.56.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Arsenal, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Bayern München against 1.32 for Arsenal. Bayern München's attack/defence rating is 1.76/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.4/0.56 for Arsenal.
Season stats
Bayern München at home · Arsenal away
League matches only, this season — Bayern München in the Bundesliga, Arsenal in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Bayern München 5 in the Bundesliga, Arsenal 6 in the Premier League.
Bayern München score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Arsenal have let in 0 there.
Arsenal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Bayern München have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bayern München
- at SC Freiburg25 Oct · Bundesligawin 52%
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 87%
- vs Borussia Dortmund31 Oct · Bundesligawin 49%
- at Atletico Madrid3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
- at FSV Mainz 057 Nov · Bundesligawin 64%
Arsenal
- vs Everton24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 60%
- at Fleetwood Town27 Oct · League Cupwin 85%
- at Liverpool1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Slavia Praha4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
- vs Hull City7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.