Independiente Rivadavia
vs
Banfield
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Banfield
The model makes it 48% Independiente Rivadavia, 26% draw, 26% Banfield — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Independiente Rivadavia 1.76, Banfield 1.15.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Independiente Rivadavia are 9th on 19 points from 13 games; Banfield are 12th on 13 points from 13 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Independiente Rivadavia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Tigre.
- Banfield have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Argentinos Juniors.
- Last 6 meetings: Banfield 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 April 2026, ended Banfield 0–0 Independiente Rivadavia.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Independiente Rivadavia vs Banfield
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Rivadavia at 48% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Independiente Rivadavia vs Banfield
Independiente Rivadavia
- D2-2Tigre17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Rosario Central11 October 2026
- D1-1Gimnasia La Plata3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Barracas Central21 September 2026
- W4-3Aldosivi12 September 2026
Banfield
- L0-1Argentinos Juniors17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tigre10 October 2026
- D1-1Rosario Central6 October 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia La Plata19 September 2026
- D1-1Barracas Central14 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente Rivadavia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Banfield conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Banfield failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Banfield scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Independiente Rivadavia | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 19 |
| 12 | Banfield | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Independiente Rivadavia
Chance to finish in the top eight
Banfield
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Banfield vs Independiente Rivadavia
Banfield and Independiente Rivadavia have met 6 times in the records we hold, Banfield has won 4 of them to Independiente Rivadavia's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Banfield on 20 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banfield | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 20 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBanfield 0–0 Independiente Rivadavia - 18 Oct 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente Rivadavia 1–2 Banfield - 11 Apr 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBanfield 1–1 Independiente Rivadavia - 24 Sep 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBanfield 2–0 Independiente Rivadavia - 30 May 2024
Copa ArgentinaIndependiente Rivadavia 1–2 Banfield - 1 Apr 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalIndependiente Rivadavia 1–2 Banfield
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Banfield | 0.80 | 1.49 |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 0.96 | 1.55 |
Leading scorers: Independiente Rivadavia and Banfield
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
- J. Florentín71
Banfield
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente Rivadavia carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.54 for Banfield. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Independiente Rivadavia and 1.15 for Banfield. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente Rivadavia rate 0.96 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Banfield rate 0.80 and 1.49.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente Rivadavia the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Independiente Rivadavia against 1.15 for Banfield. Independiente Rivadavia's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.49 for Banfield.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Independiente Rivadavia at home · Banfield away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Independiente Rivadavia 30, Banfield 28.
Independiente Rivadavia score most often in the 16–30 minute window (12 goals); Banfield have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Independiente Rivadavia
- at Gimnasia Mendoza8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 29%
Banfield
- vs Atletico Tucuman8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.