Ferencvarosi TC
vs
Paks
NB I prediction
Our model says: Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Paks
The model makes it 53% Ferencvarosi TC, 24% draw, 23% Paks — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ferencvarosi TC 2.05, Paks 1.19.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Ferencvarosi TC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ferencvarosi TC are 6th on 13 points from 8 games; Paks are 5th on 14 points from 10 games — NB I.
- Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Debreceni VSC.
- Paks have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Gyori ETO FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Ferencvarosi TC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Paks 4–2 Ferencvarosi TC.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ferencvarosi TC vs Paks
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ferencvarosi TC at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs Paks
Ferencvarosi TC
- D1-1Debreceni VSC10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza20 September 2026
- D2-2Ujpest6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Gyori ETO FC3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Puskas Academy30 August 2026
Paks
- L1-2Gyori ETO FC17 October 2026
- W3-0MTK Budapest10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Kisvarda FC19 September 2026
- L2-4Debreceni VSC5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza29 August 2026
What these results say
- Ferencvarosi TC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paks scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Paks | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ferencvarosi TC
Chance to win the league · 39% today
Paks
Chance to finish in the top four · 33% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ferencvarosi TC vs Paks
- 26 July 2026Paks 4–2 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 26 April 2026Ferencvarosi TC 2–0 PaksNB I
- 1 February 2026Paks 0–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 5 October 2025Ferencvarosi TC 2–2 PaksNB I
- 14 May 2025Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 PaksMagyar Kupa
- 10 May 2025Paks 2–3 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and Paks
Ferencvarosi TC
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Paks
GoalsAssists
- J. Szalai61
- M. Pető40
- Z. Haraszti22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ferencvarosi TC carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.5 for Paks. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.05 goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.19 for Paks. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.76 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paks rate 0.79 and 1.62.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Paks, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ferencvarosi TC a 38.8% chance of the title and Paks 3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC against 1.19 for Paks. Ferencvarosi TC's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.62 for Paks.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ferencvarosi TC at home · Paks away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Ferencvarosi TC 8, Paks 10.
Ferencvarosi TC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Paks have let in 2 there.
Paks score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Ferencvarosi TC have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ferencvarosi TC
- at AC Milan5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 13%
- at Vasas7 Nov · NB Iwin 40%
Paks
- vs Zalaegerszegi TE7 Nov · NB Iwin 48%
- at Budapest Honved21 Nov · NB Iwin 38%
- vs Puskas Academy28 Nov · NB Iwin 40%
- at Ujpest5 Dec · NB Iwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.