Tranmere
vs
Cheltenham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Tranmere 2–1 Cheltenham
The model makes it 40% Tranmere, 25% draw, 35% Cheltenham — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Tranmere 1.77, Cheltenham 1.61.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Tranmere are 17th on 12 points from 11 games; Cheltenham are 8th on 15 points from 11 games — League Two.
- Tranmere have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Barnet.
- Cheltenham are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Oldham.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended Cheltenham 1–3 Tranmere.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tranmere vs Cheltenham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tranmere at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tranmere vs Cheltenham
Tranmere
- L1-2Barnet17 October 2026
- D1-1Rochdale10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Chesterfield3 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City19 September 2026
Cheltenham
- L1-4away to Oldham17 October 2026
- L0-2Salford City10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Accrington Stanley3 October 2026
- W2-1Chesterfield26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Colchester19 September 2026
What these results say
- Tranmere did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cheltenham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cheltenham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Tranmere | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Tranmere
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 39% today
Cheltenham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Tranmere vs Cheltenham
- 21 April 2026Cheltenham 1–3 TranmereLeague Two
- 15 November 2025Tranmere 3–2 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 28 March 2025Tranmere 2–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 22 November 2024Cheltenham 1–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 2 April 2021Cheltenham 4–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 19 September 2020Tranmere 0–3 CheltenhamLeague Two
Leading scorers: Tranmere and Cheltenham
Tranmere
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Cheltenham
GoalsAssists
- C. McCann70
- A. Weimann42
- J. Evans32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tranmere carry a model rating of 5.99 against 6.05 for Cheltenham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Tranmere and 1.61 for Cheltenham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tranmere rate 0.45 in attack and 2.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cheltenham rate 0.53 and 2.70.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cheltenham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tranmere a 0% chance of the title and Cheltenham 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tranmere the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Tranmere against 1.61 for Cheltenham. Tranmere's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.7 for Cheltenham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tranmere at home · Cheltenham away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Tranmere 11, Cheltenham 11.
Tranmere score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Cheltenham have let in 3 there.
Cheltenham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Tranmere have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Tranmere
- at Fleetwood Town14 Nov · League Twowin 25%
- vs Colchester21 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- at Bristol Rovers28 Nov · League Twowin 26%
Cheltenham
- at Exeter City14 Nov · League Twowin 24%
- vs Bristol Rovers21 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- at Shrewsbury28 Nov · League Twowin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.