Shandong Luneng
vs
Qingdao Jonoon
Super League prediction
The model makes it 81% Shandong Luneng, 12% draw, 7% Qingdao Jonoon — fair odds of 1.23, 8.33 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Shandong Luneng 3.10, Qingdao Jonoon 0.88.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Shandong Luneng
- W2-1Tianjin Teda9 August 2026
- W1-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG1 August 2026
- L1-2Henan Jianye26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Dalian Zhixing18 July 2026
- W4-3Yunnan Yukun10 July 2026
Qingdao Jonoon
- L0-1Shanghai Shenhua8 August 2026
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island2 August 2026
- L0-2Tianjin Teda25 July 2026
- L1-5away to Henan Jianye17 July 2026
- L2-3away to Hangzhou Greentown14 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 30 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Shandong Luneng
- Cryzan12 goals5 assists
- Zeca9 goals4 assists
Qingdao Jonoon
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shandong Luneng carry a model rating of 6.3 against 5.82 for Qingdao Jonoon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Shandong Luneng W-L-L-W-W; Qingdao Jonoon L-L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.10 goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.88 for Qingdao Jonoon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shandong Luneng rate 0.58 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qingdao Jonoon rate 0.36 and 2.83.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shandong Luneng the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.1 expected goals for Shandong Luneng against 0.88 for Qingdao Jonoon. Shandong Luneng's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/2.83 for Qingdao Jonoon.