Tianjin Teda
vs
Beijing Guoan
Super League prediction
The model makes it 23% Tianjin Teda, 24% draw, 53% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 4.35, 4.17 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Tianjin Teda 1.14, Beijing Guoan 1.81.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Tianjin Teda
- L1-2away to Shandong Luneng9 August 2026
- W3-2Yunnan Yukun1 August 2026
- W2-0away to Qingdao Jonoon25 July 2026
- W2-0away to Shanghai Shenhua18 July 2026
- W3-0Sichuan Jiuniu4 July 2026
Beijing Guoan
- W4-0Sichuan Jiuniu7 August 2026
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chengdu Better City26 July 2026
- D1-1Shenyang Urban17 July 2026
- W2-0Shandong Luneng4 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Beijing Guoan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Tianjin Teda
- Alberto Quiles9 goals3 assists
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Yuning10 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Tianjin Teda carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.69 for Beijing Guoan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Tianjin Teda W-W-W-W-L; Beijing Guoan W-D-D-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.81 for Beijing Guoan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tianjin Teda rate 0.52 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beijing Guoan rate 0.84 and 1.16.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tianjin Teda a 0% chance of the title and Beijing Guoan 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Tianjin Teda against 1.81 for Beijing Guoan. Tianjin Teda's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.16 for Beijing Guoan.