Qingdao Youth Island
vs
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Super League prediction
The model makes it 55% Qingdao Youth Island, 29% draw, 16% Chongqing Tongliang Long — fair odds of 1.82, 3.45 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (19%).
Expected goals: Qingdao Youth Island 1.37, Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.60.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Qingdao Youth Island
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye9 August 2026
- W2-0Qingdao Jonoon2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Shenyang Urban25 July 2026
- D1-1Chengdu Better City17 July 2026
- L0-3away to Sichuan Jiuniu11 July 2026
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sichuan Jiuniu2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Wuhan Three Towns25 July 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown18 July 2026
- D1-1away to Chengdu Better City11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Qingdao Youth Island | 22 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 32 |
| 7 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Qingdao Youth Island carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.02 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Qingdao Youth Island L-D-W-W-D; Chongqing Tongliang Long D-D-L-L-L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 0.60 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qingdao Youth Island rate 0.38 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chongqing Tongliang Long rate 0.35 and 1.91.
That points to 32% for over two and a half goals and 34% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (19%), 0-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Qingdao Youth Island a 0.1% chance of the title and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qingdao Youth Island the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island against 0.6 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Qingdao Youth Island's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/1.91 for Chongqing Tongliang Long.