Shenyang Urban
vs
Sichuan Jiuniu
Super League prediction
The model makes it 45% Shenyang Urban, 21% draw, 34% Sichuan Jiuniu — fair odds of 2.22, 4.76 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Shenyang Urban 2.14, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.87.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Shenyang Urban
- L0-1away to Dalian Zhixing8 August 2026
- W3-1Shanghai Shenhua2 August 2026
- L0-1Qingdao Youth Island25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Beijing Guoan17 July 2026
- W3-1Chongqing Tongliang Long4 July 2026
Sichuan Jiuniu
- L0-4away to Beijing Guoan7 August 2026
- W2-0Chongqing Tongliang Long2 August 2026
- L3-4away to Yunnan Yukun26 July 2026
- L0-2away to Wuhan Three Towns18 July 2026
- W3-0Qingdao Youth Island11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shenyang Urban | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 24 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Shenyang Urban
- G. Mbenza9 goals1 assists
Sichuan Jiuniu
- Wesley Moraes10 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shenyang Urban carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.33 for Sichuan Jiuniu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Shenyang Urban W-D-L-W-L; Sichuan Jiuniu W-L-L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.87 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shenyang Urban rate 0.60 in attack and 2.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sichuan Jiuniu rate 0.66 and 1.89.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shenyang Urban the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Shenyang Urban against 1.87 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Shenyang Urban's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.89 for Sichuan Jiuniu.