VPS
vs
Turku PS
Veikkausliiga prediction
The model makes it 41% VPS, 29% draw, 30% Turku PS — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: VPS 1.32, Turku PS 1.09.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
VPS
- W3-1away to FF Jaro8 August 2026
- L0-1Inter Turku2 August 2026
- L1-3away to KuPS25 July 2026
- L1-2away to HJK Helsinki18 July 2026
- W1-0SJK10 July 2026
Turku PS
- D1-1away to KuPS9 August 2026
- W3-0Mariehamn1 August 2026
- L0-1away to HJK Helsinki26 July 2026
- L1-3Ilves20 July 2026
- W3-0AC Oulu11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | VPS | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 30 |
| 7 | Turku PS | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
VPS
- L. Smyth5 goals
Turku PS
- A. Muzaci3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VPS carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.16 for Turku PS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): VPS W-L-L-L-W; Turku PS W-L-L-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for VPS and 1.09 for Turku PS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VPS rate 0.42 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Turku PS rate 0.40 and 1.66.
That points to 43% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VPS the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for VPS against 1.09 for Turku PS. VPS's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.66 for Turku PS.