14 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Premier League prediction & result

Gazovik Stadium, Orenburg
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FC Orenburg 1-1 Lokomotiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% FC Orenburg, 29% draw, 46% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 4.00, 3.45 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lokomotiv at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Orenburg3%Draw93%Lokomotiv4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽A. Batrakovassist: A. Silyanov
E. Bolotov
29'
R. Kul
41'
🔁D. Rybchinskiyout: A. Kasadzhikov
61'
🔁G. Guzinaout: Alexandre Jesus
61'
⚽A. Kasadzhikovassist: R. Kul
63'
66'
I. Lantratov
⚽A. Kasadzhikov (pen)assist: A. Kasadzhikov
69'
72'
🔁A. Rudenkoout: S. Pinyaev
72'
🔁Z. Bakaevout: R. Myalkovskiy
🔁R. Kulout: R. Golybin
78'
79'
🔁V. Rakovout: N. Saltykov
🔁E. Tsenovout: D. Vedernikov
86'
🔁D. Pueblaout: B. Bosch
86'
90+3'
🔁M. Nenakhovout: A. Kovalenko
90+3'
🔁I. Eremeevout: Lucas Fasson

Match stats — FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv

52%Possession48%
26Shots11
8On target2
6Corners2

Line-ups

FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1Bogdan OvsyannikovG
  • 24Maxime SivisD
  • 6Jhon PalaciosD
  • 5Aleksey TataevD
  • 26Emil TsenovD
  • 78Ruslan KulM
  • 57Evgeniy BolotovM
  • 8Damián PueblaM
  • 11Egor NazarenkoM
  • 20Dmitry RybchinskiyM
  • 30Gedeon GuzinaF
Substitutes
  • 77Andrey KasadzhikovF
  • 19Alexandre JesusF
  • 27Renat GolybinM
  • 3Danila VedernikovD
  • 21Benjamín BoschF
  • 95Andrey KhodanovichG
  • 59Maksim SyshchenkoD
  • 38Artem KasimovD
  • 65Ivan IvashchenkoM
Coach: Ildar Akhmetzyanov
Lokomotiv 4-1-4-1
  • 22Ilya LantratovG
  • 24Maksim NenakhovD
  • 5Gerzino NyamsiD
  • 14Georgi DzhikiyaD
  • 45Aleksandr SilyanovD
  • 85Evgeniy MorozovM
  • 7Zelimkhan BakaevM
  • 10Aleksey BatrakovM
  • 75Ilya EremeevM
  • 19Aleksandr RudenkoM
  • 11Vadim RakovF
Substitutes
  • 9Sergey PinyaevM
  • 99Ruslan MyalkovskiyF
  • 17Nikita SaltykovM
  • 3Lucas FassonD
  • 8Aleksandr KovalenkoM
  • 16Daniil VeselovG
  • 59Egor PogostnovD
  • 32Lucas VeraM
  • 88Mikhail ShchetininM
Coach: Mikhail Galaktionov

Form going into FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv

FC Orenburg

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Rubin9 August 2026

Lokomotiv

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Akron8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10FC Orenburg143831414017
15Lokomotiv142571621-511

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv

  • 18 April 2026FC Orenburg 0–1 LokomotivPremier League
  • 9 November 2025Lokomotiv 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 3 May 2025Lokomotiv 1–1 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 1 October 2024Lokomotiv 2–1 FC OrenburgCup
  • 14 September 2024FC Orenburg 2–4 LokomotivPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and Lokomotiv

FC Orenburg

GoalsAssists

  • J. Thompson42

Lokomotiv

GoalsAssists

  • N. Titkov31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Orenburg and Lokomotiv drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv at 46% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Batrakov 3' for Lokomotiv, A. Kasadzhikov 63' for FC Orenburg.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.