KuPS
vs
Universitatea Craiova
The model makes it 31% KuPS, 26% draw, 43% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: KuPS 1.25, Universitatea Craiova 1.51.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
KuPS
No earlier matches on record this season.
Universitatea Craiova
- W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
- W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
The two sides
KuPS carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.57 for Universitatea Craiova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): KuPS W-L-L; Universitatea Craiova W-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for KuPS and 1.51 for Universitatea Craiova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KuPS rate 0.61 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universitatea Craiova rate 0.59 and 1.08.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for KuPS against 1.51 for Universitatea Craiova. KuPS's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.08 for Universitatea Craiova.