SV Meppen
vs
Havelse
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: SV Meppen 2–1 Havelse
The model makes it 53% SV Meppen, 25% draw, 22% Havelse — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SV Meppen 1.93, Havelse 1.08.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to SV Meppen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SV Meppen are 16th on 10 points from 9 games; Havelse are bottom on 5 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- SV Meppen have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Hansa Rostock.
- Havelse have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Würzburger Kickers.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 March 2025, ended Havelse 2–1 SV Meppen.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SV Meppen vs Havelse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Meppen at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SV Meppen vs Havelse
SV Meppen
- W2-0away to Hansa Rostock13 October 2026
- D1-1Stuttgart II10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hoffenheim II19 September 2026
- L1-3FC Viktoria Köln15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Verl12 September 2026
Havelse
- D2-2Würzburger Kickers13 October 2026
- L0-5away to SSV Jahn Regensburg10 October 2026
- L1-3Fortuna Köln25 September 2026
- L1-2away to MSV Duisburg15 September 2026
- D2-2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach12 September 2026
What these results say
- SV Meppen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SV Meppen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SV Meppen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Havelse did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Havelse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Havelse had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SV Meppen | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SV Meppen
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
Havelse
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 80% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: SV Meppen vs Havelse
- 29 March 2025Havelse 2–1 SV MeppenRegionalliga - Nord
- 28 September 2024SV Meppen 4–0 HavelseRegionalliga - Nord
- 13 April 2024SV Meppen 4–1 HavelseRegionalliga - Nord
- 15 October 2023Havelse 4–2 SV MeppenRegionalliga - Nord
- 5 February 2022Havelse 3–0 SV Meppen3. Liga
- 30 August 2021SV Meppen 1–0 Havelse3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SV Meppen carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.02 for Havelse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for SV Meppen and 1.08 for Havelse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SV Meppen rate 0.45 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Havelse rate 0.49 and 2.64.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SV Meppen a 0.1% chance of the title and Havelse 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Meppen the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for SV Meppen against 1.08 for Havelse. SV Meppen's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.64 for Havelse.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SV Meppen at home · Havelse away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: SV Meppen 9, Havelse 9.
SV Meppen score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Havelse have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SV Meppen
- vs Würzburger Kickers24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 46%
- at Fortuna Düsseldorf30 Oct · 3. Ligawin 20%
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
- at Fortuna Köln21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 27%
- at SV Wehen29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 25%
Havelse
- vs FC Saarbrücken25 Oct · 3. Ligawin 32%
- vs FC Ingolstadt 0431 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- at SV Wehen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 20%
- vs FC Viktoria Köln20 Nov · 3. Ligawin 26%
- at Hansa Rostock27 Nov · 3. Ligawin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.