Hoffenheim II
vs
Verl
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Hoffenheim II 2–1 Verl
The model makes it 40% Hoffenheim II, 26% draw, 34% Verl — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hoffenheim II 1.64, Verl 1.45.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hoffenheim II are 7th on 13 points from 9 games; Verl are 10th on 12 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- Hoffenheim II have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Stuttgart II.
- Verl are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to SSV Jahn Regensburg.
- Last 2 meetings: Verl 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Verl 3–1 Hoffenheim II.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hoffenheim II vs Verl
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hoffenheim II at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hoffenheim II vs Verl
Hoffenheim II
- L2-3away to Stuttgart II13 October 2026
- L2-3away to MSV Duisburg10 October 2026
- W1-0SV Meppen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0416 September 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Köln13 September 2026
Verl
- D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf11 October 2026
- W2-1Würzburger Kickers18 September 2026
- D1-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach15 September 2026
- W2-1SV Meppen12 September 2026
What these results say
- Hoffenheim II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hoffenheim II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hoffenheim II had three goals or more.
- Verl went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Verl scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Verl conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 13 |
| 10 | Verl | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hoffenheim II
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
Verl
Chance to finish in the top four · 20% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hoffenheim II vs Verl
- 14 February 2026Verl 3–1 Hoffenheim II3. Liga
- 13 September 2025Hoffenheim II 2–4 Verl3. Liga
Leading scorers: Hoffenheim II and Verl
Hoffenheim II
GoalsAssists
- B. Makanda10
Verl
GoalsAssists
- D. Waidner20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hoffenheim II carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.31 for Verl. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Hoffenheim II and 1.45 for Verl. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hoffenheim II rate 0.58 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Verl rate 0.59 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hoffenheim II a 0.9% chance of the title and Verl 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hoffenheim II the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Hoffenheim II against 1.45 for Verl. Hoffenheim II's attack/defence rating is 0.58/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.74 for Verl.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hoffenheim II at home · Verl away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Hoffenheim II 9, Verl 9.
Hoffenheim II score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Verl have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hoffenheim II
- at Waldhof Mannheim25 Oct · 3. Ligawin 31%
- vs FC Viktoria Köln31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 37%
- at Würzburger Kickers8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs Preußen Münster21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
- at Rot-Weiß Essen28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 21%
Verl
- at FC Viktoria Köln24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 26%
- vs SV Wehen31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 49%
- at Stuttgart II8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 36%
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at Preußen Münster28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.