27 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Serbia vs Netherlands UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Rajko Mitić Stadion, Belgrade
Referee: Szymon Marciniak
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Serbia 1-2 Netherlands.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Serbia, 26% draw, 49% Netherlands — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Netherlands at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Serbia0%Draw3%Netherlands97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Saša Lukić
12'
17'
🔁Cody Gakpoout: Ruben van Bommel
30'
⚽Mexx Meerdink (pen)
🔁Sergej Milinković-Savićout: Dušan Tadić
45'
🔁Dejan Joveljićout: Luka Jovic
45'
⚽Luka Jovicassist: Saša Lukić
46'
🔁Aleksandar Stankovicout: Nemanja Maksimović
59'
🔁Kosta Nedeljkovicout: Strahinja Erakovic
59'
67'
🔁Tijjani Reijndersout: Kenneth Taylor
67'
🔁Ryan Gravenberchout: Guus Til
69'
⚽Mexx Meerdinkassist: Guus Til
🔁Strahinja Pavlovicout: Filip Kostić
71'
80'
🔁Mexx Meerdinkout: Quinten Timber
80'
🔁Denzel Dumfriesout: Jurriën Timber
85'
Jurriën Timber

Match stats — Serbia vs Netherlands

33%Possession67%
11Shots25
6On target8
3Corners4

Line-ups

Serbia 5-4-1
  • 23V. Milinković-SavićG
  • 2K. NedeljkovićD
  • 6N. GudeljD
  • 15S. BabićD
  • 3S. PavlovićD
  • 17A. TerzićD
  • 14A. ŽivkovićM
  • 7A. StankovićM
  • 22S. LukićM
  • 20S. Milinković-SavićM
  • 9D. JoveljićF
Substitutes
  • 5N. MaksimovićM
  • 11F. KostićM
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 21L. SamardžićM
  • 13N. SimićD
  • 12F. StankovićG
  • 10D. TadićF
  • 18M. CvetkovićF
  • 4V. DragojevićM
Coach: V. Paunovic
Netherlands 4-3-3
  • 1B. VerbruggenG
  • 22D. DumfriesD
  • 6J. van HeckeD
  • 4V. van DijkD
  • 15M. van de VenD
  • 8R. GravenberchM
  • 18J. VeermanM
  • 14T. ReijndersM
  • 7C. SummervilleF
  • 17M. MeerdinkF
  • 11C. GakpoF
Substitutes
  • 23M. FlekkenG
  • 3J. HatoD
  • 20T. KoopmeinersM
  • 10N. LangF
  • 13R. RoefsG
  • 12K. TaylorM
  • 16G. TilM
  • 19Q. TimberM
  • 2J. TimberD
Coach: Xavi

Form going into Serbia vs Netherlands

Serbia

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2Greece24 September 2026

Netherlands

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1Germany24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Serbia400438-50
1Netherlands422075+28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Netherlands won 2–1 at Serbia. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Netherlands at 49%. The goals: Mexx Meerdink (penalty) 30' for Netherlands, Luka Jovic 46' for Serbia, Mexx Meerdink 69' for Netherlands.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.